Not Guy Incognito

Happy Trails To Me...

2007-08-01T22:54:00.000-04:00

I know it's a blow to my trio of devoted readers, but I've chosen to discontinue this blog for now, because I no longer really find it interesting.

Ye political bloggers, keep doing what you're doing. But don't get too serious about it. Don't measure self-worth by page views. Don't get too hung up on yourselves. You're not journalists, but occasionally a blind nut finds a squirrel. Occasionally.

There are still a few of us trying to do good work in the media, despite the corporate pressures not to do so.

Thanks to those who have constructively commented. ***Thbthbthbthb*** to a select few.

Like everyone who abandons a blog, I'll say there's a chance I'll post from time to time. Perhaps.

If you know me, you'll be getting an email with a link to my latest online venture. Something much more personal that I hope to update much more regularly.

If you don't, I leave you with this:

Requiem for Jerry? Not Quite.

2007-05-16T21:49:00.000-04:00

"I really believe that the pagans, and the abortionists, and the feminists, and the gays and the lesbians who are actively trying to make that an alternative lifestyle, the ACLU, People For the American Way -- all of them who have tried to secularize America -- I point the finger in their face and say, 'You helped this happen.'"
Rev. Jerry Falwell on 9/11

A force in American politics is gone. Some may say for the better. Few wished for him to be silenced by death. Many would rather him be marginalized by his misplaced comments.

By no means am I any sort of Jerry Falwell fan. In fact I've found him quite repugnant for as long as I can remember.

I feel no grief whatsoever for his passing. I do not think he was a great man. I think he was a great salesman of his brand of religion. A shyster, a huckster, a modern day P.T. Barnum (and that may not be all that far from the truth).

He inserted himself into the modern dilemma, injecting himself into political, social, and religious America with a strange measure of self-authority. The word blustery comes to mind.

Mistakes were made, and I think he was most himself when he erred. Tinky Winky, the mess after 9/11, calling the prophet Muhammad a 'terrorist', encouraging apartheid, using "The Old Time Gospel Hour" for political purposes against Bill Clinton. He opposed desegregation and Martin Luther King, Jr (both positions he retracted later).

So what is his legacy? The gaffes? The 22,000 member Thomas Road Baptist Church? The Religious Right? Liberty University?

Although in the past few years Falwell passed on his business to his sons, he was TRBC. It is hard to see the Gospel Hour continue without its leader. An untaxed $200 million a year ministry will not continue at that level without its charismatic leader.

The Religious Right? A once-powerful poltical action committee that seems to have fallen on hard times in the last few years. They couldn't save the Republicans in 2006. Iraq, and not social issues, is the elephant in the room in the 2008 debate.

How about Liberty University? Is that the legacy?

This is what Falwell focused much of his energy on in the last few years of his life. He wanted it to be the BYU or Notre Dame for Baptists. A close study reveals some disturbing facts.

Liberty currently holds a poor fourth-tier rating from most college ranking publications. It holds only a $6 million endowment, a paltry sum for any institution of higher learning. It is especially bad for a campus that claims more than 10,000 students. By contrast, the University of Richmond (still not a highly acclaimed University) holds a $1 billion+ endowment with 3600 students.

Liberty has seen numerous financial crises over the years, and I have the feeling we'll see more as its charismatic leader has passed.

Liberty's campus is sprawling, but cheap from what I've seen. Quick and inexpensive construction will not hold up to the elements, and will see major capital needs arise within the next few years.

In an ever freedom-loving society, how many teens will see strict reprimands for viewing 'R' rated movies as part of the college experience?

Just wait, it doesn't stop there.

This is a list of the most egregious offenses a Liberty student can commit, taken from its own code of conduct:

Abortion
Academic dishonesty
Assault/sexual assault (minimum two semesters out)
Commission/conviction of any felony
Failure of three Christian/Community Services without reconciliation
Illegal drugs-association/possession, use/distribution (minimum two semesters out)
Immorality
Involvement with witchcraft, séances or other occult activities
Life-threatening behavior or language to others or oneself (immediate removal/exclusion from campus and a minimum of two semesters out)
Non-participation/disruption/non-compliance (possible removal/exclusion from campus)
Possession or consumption of alcoholic beverages
Refusal to submit to an Alco-Sensor test and/or drug test as specified by the administration
Spending the night with a person of the opposite sex
Stealing or possession of stolen property (plus financial restitution; minimum two semesters out)
Two or more individuals of the opposite sex together in hotel/motel room without proper permission
Unauthorized possession/use of weapons

A few are valid. But cheating is seen as the equal as spending a night with a member of the opposite sex, involvement in the occult, or the legal act of abortion. Is the theft of someone else's intellectual property really as bad as drinking a beer? This is a place supposedly dedicated to crafting young minds for critical and independent thought.

Of course not all of these offenses merit dismissal. Just 30 demerits and a $500 fine. The cynic in me says, "Of course there would be a monetary penalty, Falwell's involved."

There will be a market for that type of education for some, but it appears to be diminishing returns.

By the way, what is a Liberty degree worth these days? Can a Liberty degree be held seriously? What student of the sciences should go out into the workplace learning that the earth is a few thousand years old, and that dinosaurs were present on Noah's Ark? These 'ideas' are actually tought in Lynchburg. Geologic and empirical data confirm otherwise.

Teachings of sciences should be based on testable truths, not beliefs. There is most definitely a place for the independent study of religion, but it should not be in the laboratory. That is a place of scientific tests, not beliefs.

There are clearly problems within that university (lowercase emphasized for a reason). Is this really a beacon of enlightenment and independent thought?

Is Liberty University Jerry Falwell's greatest legacy? It appears so, and that would be quite appropriate. And any critically-thinking person should realize it. The university is the mirror of the man: highly flawed, yet strangely popular.

We Will Return

2007-04-24T23:39:00.000-04:00

A madman will run loose again.

Families will cry again, mourning their losses.

There will be another disaster. And yet again, you won't think it can get any worse.

Time may heal all wounds, but tragedy can open them up again. Ask the families of the Oklahoma City bombing what they thought about during 9/11. Ask the families affected by Columbine if Virginia Tech brought back the anguish of senseless loss.

The people will decry the handling of the story by the media again as they watch for hours on end the regurgitated facts from the faces on the cable news networks.

When will it end? When will Virginia Tech return to being just another school known for football in a rural setting?

There may be a lull now, but be prepared for an onslaught of media coverage in the future. For graduation. For the first day of classes. At 9:45 am on 4/16, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010... and so on.

It doesn't end. The University of Texas is still trying to get past the bell tower. Kent State - an expression of horror frozen in time. No child can graduate Columbine without a hushed whisper and prayer.

When it happens, we'll be there, but not bearing gifts. We'll be bringing the sins of a dozen other madmen, trying to find sense in their madness. We'll try to equate one disaster to another, subconsciously trying to find whose grief is worse based on the body count.

The students at Virginia Tech have asked for peace. They've asked for privacy. They've asked for time to try to make sense of a senseless act.

As awful as it may sound, what Virginia Tech needs is another tragedy, or another astronaut going crazy. Perhaps another Imus. Something to move the spotlight from Blacksburg. Most importantly, it needs to happen somewhere else. Maybe then, when the attention is pointed elsewhere the members of the Virginia Tech community can grieve in peace and begin to heal.

Television satellite trucks will sprout like dandelions again in some far away place you've only heard about once or twice before. And yet we'll all watch. For a little while... until something else grabs our attention.

Today, We're All Hokies... Even Journalists

2007-04-20T12:02:00.000-04:00

On Monday morning I was late for work. I'd stopped by the post office to mail some bills.

I was driving my usual route. The wind was howling.

At exactly 9:15, I looked up through my windshield and noticed a single branch on a tree shaking violently and strangely in the wind. With a strange feeling, I said out loud to myself only: "Something bad is going to happen." For some reason, visions of the Pentagon on 9/11 crossed my mind.

I didn't know what it was. I also didn't know at the time that I was right.

Just about that moment a crazed gunman was walking through the front doors of Norris Hall on the Virginia Tech campus, chaining the doors, about to lay waste to 30 innocent victims. Two were already dead. I knew nothing of this when I noticed that single branch, but something struck me that something was amiss in our world.

I share this deeply personal experience not because I believe in ESP. In fact, I'm quite the opposite. No ghosts, UFO sightings, pet psychics, or mediums for me. I don't believe in the paranormal. I don't think I'm special. I don't think I'm "touched" or have any sort of a special gift. I just had a bad feeling. Unfortunately, it was spot-on.

For some reason, that image of a single branch blowing in the wind remains to me the most disturbing and unnerving image of the Virginia Tech massacre. Perhaps because it's something only I saw.

Within moments of learning that at least 20 people were dead in the attack, I was on my way to that seemingly quiet mountain town to try to deliver a sense of the tragedy to the viewers. Or at least the best sense that the television news can provide. I think I helped bring the emotion of the event to thousands of viewers, but I just can't shake the feelings that I, as a person, did not accept the scope of the disaster until after I left Blacksburg.

I arrived on campus with just enough time to gather as much information as possible and settle a few logistics. Police were just starting their investigation into what happened.

Nothing is more difficult for a local television station than trying to cover the huge national story that's in your own backyard. This was the third event of national scope I have covered in about a decade of journalism.

Within moments of arriving upon a momentous occasion, the first thought is not about gathering facts. It's about getting a face on the air as soon as possible. It's not journalism, it's simply the nature of television today.

It may sound very strange, but with events such as this, the facts are almost secondary. Most of the information filters through the national outlets first, and then trickles down to the local media outlets. Close connections that take years to develop vanish under the bright lights of a CNN or NBC mobile set. Police and other officials whose wives' names you know quickly forget you in favor of the big networks. In part, this is out of neccessity. Wouldn't you rather tell something to five people instead of 150?

I spent three days standing just feet away from Charlie Gibson, Geraldo, Brian Williams, Tucker Carlson, Wolf Blitzer, Matt Lauer and a host of other faces and names you'd know. I resented them for their presence. This was OUR story, the Virginia media outlets. They fly in with their personal assistants to take the glory. They fill 24 hours by interviewing the so-called "experts" who jump to conclusions based on the same information we're reporting. One quickly learns who the prima donnas are, and the real people who truly feel sorrow for the victims and their families and almost feel embarrassed for being there.

Not being innundated with information like someone watching TV, you almost forget why you're there. You forget about the 32 dead and the madman who caused it. You're more focused on getting your job done. It's easy to get lost in the spectacle. It's easy to talk about your status-quo life with the people you used to work with years ago, sharing hugs, handshakes and laughs.

Then, during a quiet moment, the reason you're there crosses your transom. You begin to imagine the contorted bodies still lying inside the faceless building you've been staring at for hours on video. It's hurry up and wait, furiously getting the job done, followed by imagining yourself as a participant inside the tragedy you're trying to cover.

You find yourself incensed at the hordes of your ilk. They're accosting survivors. They're using those people not for the public good, but to try to get a piece of the big story. You're among a crowd of 60 arms holding microphones reached forward trying to capture the memories of someone who escaped death at the hands of a madman with just a bullet through the arm. His arm is in a sling, and as he walks reporters and photogaphers are grabbing his wounded arm trying to turn him to a better angle to get a picture of his face and a few muttered words. He cries out in pain. Then you realize that you're one of -them- and get disgusted by the entire scene and walk away, no matter the consequences.

I took the time to wander past hundreds of people on the drill field at VT. You could see their eyes and slumped shoulders mourning the loss of life and the loss of innocence. I looked at the still open windows of Norris Hall through which a lucky few plunged to safety. Parked in front was the armored State Police van. It was still backed up to the doors to haul away shell casings and skull fragments in individually labeled plastic bags. Blood swabs and bullet fragments. Its next stop the state crime lab to deposit its horrific cargo.

I could only imagine the carnage that lay behind a foot of Hokiestone and millimeters of glass. At the time, standing among the orange and maroon clad masses, I felt sadness. I felt for the crying, those who could not contain their grief under such trying circumstances. At the same time, I shed no tears.

Now a feeling of sorrow sticks in my gut and tightens my throat. It waters my eyes.

Now, I've left and waves of grief wash over me at the slightest provocation. A simple photograph of a survivor or kind gesture kindles emotions I didn't feel when I was feet away from the scene.

I feel for the lives cut short. I feel for the families grieving. I feel terrible for using disaster and pain for the profit and prestige of my company.

But I will go on. I will be at the next tragedy, checking a part of my soul at the gates, trying to talk someone into giving me an interview.

I hope you'll be informed and entertained. I expect no sympathy. I'm one of -them-. But I hope you'll realize the personal costs it took to bring you a small slice of American history.

And the next time something like a branch blowing strangely in the wind catches my eye, let's hope it's not an ill wind blowing. I'd love to sit comfortably behind my desk and be absolutely wrong.

Transportation - Everyone Dance!

2007-04-05T07:48:00.000-04:00

There's dancing in the streets because our government has actually passed some sort of a plan to deal with massive congestion in the state. Well, not quite. The entire state won't see their problems fixed. And Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads won't see their problems fixed anytime soon - there will just be a lot of construction there over the next few years (and isn't that fun?).

The Governor can claim a win.

The Republican leadership can claim a win (in an election year too).

So who lost? Any part of Virginia that's not in the north or the southeast.

This plan is dedicated to the largest two urban centers in Virginia, and forgets about fixing PROBLEMS - not congestion.

Like Interstate 81 - a truly awful driving experience.

I say we rent a fleet of 143 Ford Escorts and make all of our legislators, the Governor, Attorney General, and Lt. Gov drive the entire length of Interstate 81 - in both directions. Not only will we see how many get pulled over, but we'll see how many of them get flattened by tractor trailers on this dangerous and overcrowded road.

We could do more in Virginia for transportation with zoning than construction. Stop urban sprawl and the massive 3,000 home developments on what used to be farmland, and you won't have transportation problems. Of course, if you buy one of those homes, I'm glad you'll be sitting in traffic for the next few years while your precious roads are torn up and expanded. I'll be in my cozy bed while you'll be sitting in your car staring at the same license plate for two hours.

Why Transportation's Going Nowhere

2007-02-24T08:20:00.000-05:00

Well, I suppose there's a plan. So why will it not go anywhere? Because it's not a compromise.

"Sen. Phillip Puckett, D-Russell County, was the only transportation negotiator who said he will not support the compromise. Puckett said he opposes the use of general fund money to retire debt and charged that Republicans have failed to include him in discussions of the plan since Tuesday." Roanoke Times

I've heard Puckett was not even invited to the final transportation negotiations, and was seeing the plan for the first time at the press conference touting how great it was. That's why the Gov. says it's a plan drafted "in secret".

"I can only speak for the Democratic caucus, but I don't think this will be received very favorably," Puckett said.

Second of all, it's simply another bad plan. I'm glad to see that the House Repubs will allow some sort of new funding, even if it's just in NOVA and Tidewater.

Have any of these guys driven in the mountains lately? Have they white-knucked down Interstate 81 in the last few years?

That's my problem with the plan. There's almost NOTHING for the rest of Virginia in the plan, yet drivers across the state will be paying higher registration fees, higher license fees, and will be impacted if they travel... but they won't get a dime of that back.

This sure is one crooked road they're trying to take us down.

PS - In elections, the Republicans have counted on votes from the Shenandoah Valley for years. These voters drive on 81, and know it's a disaster. Perhaps, just perhaps, when they see their fair legislators have passed them by,

Hitch Your Wagon to a Star

2007-02-17T10:55:00.000-05:00

Virginia's Eyebrow-In-Chief will announce in about six hours that he's joining the Obama-nation and endorsing the Senator from Illinois for President

Why now? Revenge for buddy Mark Warner being shooed out of the race? (you can find much more about that on other blogs) The need for a boost? Simply because he's Teen Beat's Man of the Week?

I'll let him explain his reasons for doing this. I'm sure he'll be peppered with questions, which he will artfully dodge.

But, lost for the most part is Dickie Cranwell's endorsement of John Edwards.

Dickie's the man on the right.

Why would the Democratic Party Chairman of Virginia do this at this time? Trying to steal Tim Kaine's thunder? Trying to put the Gov. back in his place? Wanting to keep up appearances of remaining relevant?

Dickie, while remaining pretty much under the radar lately, still is a very powerful force in Virginia politics. He's a rare bird, one who wields power in the back rooms, but probably misses the spotlight just a little bit.

Second Verse, Same as the First

2007-02-17T10:35:00.000-05:00

The transportation plans in the General Assembly right now are in more of a mess than Anna Nicole Smith's will.

We've seen the usual backbiting, sniping, and general chicanery about what's happening with Virginia's roads. It's all about saving face right now. Bill Howell and crew can't stand to give an inch to anyone, and Sen. Chichester won't even consider using a dime of old money.

What is so bad about committing money from the General Fund (the state's basic coffers) to transportation? Well, it's not about current money, it's about future money. Say things aren't so financially rosy for the state in a few years, would transportation be funded while schoolchildren have to read surplus textbooks from the 1940's? Of course not. But it is a bad precedent to simply pawn off current problems on future Assemblies. The car tax fiasco proved that one...

I have come up with the words that could solve this entire mess... Ready?

"Money from the general fund will go towards transportation as long as there is a surplus and committments to state services are funded in accordance with rates of inflation. If the state cannot achieve a surplus, taxes on gasoline and higher user fees on drivers will be enacted."

There. Everybody's happy. As long as we have enough money, we drop a ton of it on transportation. If we get into a bind, the people pay up. Surely the House Republicans would feel confident that their rosy predictions on Virginia's economy will come true. They can say they haven't raised taxes, and Chichester et al. can say that they are not raiding the General Fund. Everybody saves face, nobody really gave in, and we start clearing some of the transportation disasters across the state.

If we can't agree to a compromise like this, I think this session will end like last year, and the one before, etc. It's time to forget about grudges and GET SOMETHING DONE.

What I'm most upset about is some of the newer legislators not speaking out more strongly. They are the ones who promised change, but have not delivered so far.

I am glad to see two wings of the Republican party battle it out. It shows that a handful of people out there are still thinking for themselves and using their own versions of reason (even if it may be wrong), instead of merely toeing the party line.

It's the Time of the Session

2007-01-10T07:57:00.000-05:00

So the election burned me out a little... But I'm back, now that something interesting is happening again.

Pretty much everybody I've talked to is trying to remember why they agreed to hold the first day in Jamestown. A logistical nightmare, they say. A lot of people are wondering exactly what Dick Cheney has to say to the General Assembly, and why he's interjecting himself into Virginia politics.

Going to Jamestown is a nice gesture, but there's a lot to be done. I just hope Del. Ben Cline's and Del. Chris Peace's mothers packed their lunches and remembered to sign their permission slips.

I have no grand expectations that anything substantive will get done in this session. Everybody's transportation proposals are rehashes of what nobody could agree upon last year. Of course this IS an election year for our representatives, so the grandstanding will be grander, and the speeches will be louder. That's about it.

The Governor will blame the House Republicans. The House Republicans will blame the Governor, taxes, and the Senate Republicans. The Democrats will simply sit back and watch the carnage. Del. Bob Marshall will blame every vice known to man. AG Bob McDonnell and Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling will continue to try to pretend they live in the Governor's mansion. Del. Algie Howell will remain embarrassed by the Droopy Drawers bill (at least he should be).

And the people of Virginia will get hosed yet again by a group of men and women who can't seem to give up a sliver of their ideals to make the state a better place to live.

So yeah, something interesting is happening. It's just all stuff we've seen last year. And the year before. And the year before that. Oh, and even the year before that.

I almost forgot. I hope the legislators whom I had dinner nearby last night slept off all the wine they drank. Go to any fancy restaurant in downtown Richmond, swing a dead cat, and count the number of Delegates and Senators you hit. I'll bet it's more than 10.

If you don't, you'll miss some fun times. A few bottles of cabernet will make some Delegates start quoting (quite loudly in a quiet restaurant) movie lines like: "Squeal like a pig!" and "What we have here is a failure to communicate."

Ah, deliverance from politics as usual indeed.

Well, here goes some more prognistication...

2006-11-07T01:35:00.000-05:00

First my votes...

I'll be voting for Webb. This is more of an anti-Allen vote than anything(macaca was overblown, what was overlooked was the bill where he stole the text and replaced "will" with "shall").

Amendment 1 - A hearty no.
Amendment 2 - Sure, why not?
Amendment 3 - A hearty yes.

House of Reps - A protest vote for Brad Blanton (even though he's saying 'Don't vote for me')

Richmond City Council - Paul Goldman. There's a major rift between him and Wilder, and I'm all for annoying Wilder.

Now for my predictions... A recount, with Webb pulling it off. He's got too much momentum going on. Gail Parker pulls in an important .8 - 1.2%.

Amendments go yes, yes, yes.

No great changes in the House of Reps in VA. Drake beats a very bad candidate in Kellam. Obviously, Dems take control of the House convincingly. At least 3 republicans then switch over on Wednesday for key positions.

In the Senate, I'm predicting a 50-49-1, and the beginning of more Supreme Court battles and general gridlock.

This is a time of great change in our country, and I'm looking forward to some of it. One just hopes the Democrats see the greater good ahead in '08 and don't try to take their agenda too far left.

Despite what most partisans will say, this wants to be a very moderate nation. The voters will reward the party that drifts to the middle, and right now that's the Donkeys. Of course, drifts to the middle are usually done by neccessity.

Remember... vote early and often! (oops, I was channeling LBJ for a second...)

Wilder Watch

2006-10-24T08:24:00.000-04:00

When is Dougie Wilder going to endorse someone? He has to be asked a few more times before he plays his cards.

Remember, he didn't endorse Kaine until the last minute last year.

Wilder loves the suspense, he loves the drama, and he loves having everybody wait for him to unveil himself in grand fashion.

When it does come, I wouldn't be surprised if it were Allen.

State of the Race: Part... Whatever

2006-10-24T08:08:00.000-04:00

Sorry for the lack of posts. Been a little busy, you know, with work and all.

There's a good reason there's been a lot of attention on the marriage amendment (Vote No!). It's pretty fair to say that the Senate race has gotten flat out boring. Allen still has his small lead, but is still polling under 50%. So, technically there's a chance for Webb, but I still think Allen pulls in 50.5 to 52.0 on election day.

We've seen the same ol' tired attack ads. Nothing positive. Nothing redeeming from either side.

There are more "scandals" that won't go anywhere, so they really aren't worth talking about.

Allen no longer feels we need to "stay the course" in Iraq, which is exactly what he had said for well over a year. Obviously he got the memo from the White House that they were rebranding the War on Terror to make it feel more warm and snuggly.

Webb still has yet to evolve into a decent politician. He still is talking like a writer (which in politics is like having a face made for radio). He let too many clear openings go by in the debate, and still has difficulty putting together some 10 second soundbites. He has yet to evolve his positions from "I'm not George Allen". This is basic campaigning he's having trouble with here.

My conclusion?

Allen will win.

But the Democrats have to be wishing they'd convinced Mark Warner to run for this seat. It would be ugly by now, and the national Republicans would have already pulled their ads to focus on Tennessee.

The Dirty Little Television Secrets Behind Allen's Ad

2006-10-02T22:56:00.000-04:00

Did you miss it? Unless you looked for it, chances are you did. That's problem #1 with George Allen's two minute "speech" to Virginia. Basically, he made a two minute pre-prime time address on one station in five markets: DC, Richmond, Norfolk, Roanoke, and for some reason, Harrisonburg. (what? no Bluefield? no Charlottesville? no Bristol?)

Now, I'm not going to go into the Kaine-like creepy eyebrow (although it did make his delivery look forced), or Susan Allen's plastic smile. I think that's just mean-spirited, wrong, and not conducive to a critical analysis.

There is an inherent problem with this approach; he basically lost a whole day of advertising for two minutes that a majority of Virginians missed or went to the bathroom during. If he had carpeted every station in the state with the ad at the same time, AND made cable, DirecTV, and Dish ad buys at the same time, he would have reached a lot more people.

In devoting an entire day's worth of money for one 2 minute ad, he lost out on a lot of opportunities to reach the voters. Think about it, how many other Allen ads did you see Monday? I counted one, and I watch TV pretty much all day. Compare that to the 10-15 we've seen on normal days. Short, punchy, and carpet-bombed ads reinforce the message. Compare it to the Geico "we've hired an actor" ads. They started in late July, but did not become a hit until the middle of September. They built on the message, and the message finally hit nearly two months later.

There are some technical problems with the ad as well. The lighting just was not very good, especially the way too reflective light shined on the Redskins helmet in the background. (I wonder if they were watching the Redskins/Jaguars game to see if they should run the version with the helmet in it.) Also, way too much backlighting that made him look like he had a halo.

And by the way, if he looked comfortable, it's probably because this was highly staged. Taped, not live. Reading the Teleprompter.

As far as the message? Allen would have done a lot better to save his message for this debate on Monday, and save his money for more effective ads.

Is This Going to be the Next "Craney Island" Moment?

2006-09-28T14:06:00.000-04:00

While everybody's talking about who said what when, this slipped by in the Senate.
While the Webb campaign is probably focused on racism, they'd better be doing their homework about what's going on in the Senate, because the next televised debate is coming up soon. And it includes a segment where the candidates will be asking each other questions.

Webb was thoroughly embarrassed during the Virginia Bar Association debate at The Homestead earlier, and I know that the Allen folks would love to hit him again on statewide TV.

I have a gut feeling we'll be hearing more about this pre-texting bill.

You're welcome.

From Macaca to This

2006-09-26T08:46:00.000-04:00

I just can't stand when people say "the n-word". What do they mean? Night? Nickel? Nincompoop? There are quite a few n-words, so let's be clear what we're talking about.

"Nigger" n : (ethnic slur) extremely offensive name for a Black person

There, I said it. It is just another word in the English language in this context. I'm talking about a slur, and not directing it to anybody. Weakening the word by saying "the n-word" in this context does a disservice to all who fought for equality. It clouds the issue, and is not forthright about what's being said. Let's be real folks, and say exactly what we mean.

I propose as a substitute: n****r. I think that conveys the meaning if you don't wish to type out those six letters in that particular combination.

Case in point:

"No Viet-Cong ever called me an n-word" (Cassius Clay) just doesn't carry the same meaning as "No Viet-Cong ever called me a n****r."

George Allen and Dick Wadhams have both said George never, ever, in his lifetime, said the word "nigger". Several people disagree.

The campaign had better be right, because somewhere, sombody probably has it on tape. The campaign better find these people before they come forward, or before the Webb campaign finds them.

Me? I have a sneaking suspicion a tape will surface.

After the mess macaca caused, how do you think that would play out?

Master Debaters

2006-08-17T22:06:00.000-04:00

First there was the Homestead.

Then Meet the Press on NBC (Sunday September 17th)

Then there will be the Fairfax CofC (Monday, September 18th)

And this evening I was e-mailed this. (Monday, October 9th)

I'm glad we're avoiding all of the nonsense over "ducking" debates from last year. I'm glad the candidates have agreed that getting in front of the people of Virginia is a good and proper thing to do. Let's hope the future debates are a little more entertaining than the ones we've already seen (don't forget about ones during the primary!).

Well, Something Finally Happened...

2006-08-15T18:54:00.000-04:00

I guess this is why they have trackers...

Stupidity has a name right now, and his name is George Felix Allen.

In case you haven't seen the macaca incident is making all sorts of waves in the race. I saw an interesting piece on CNN today. Pretty much tore him to shreds.

This is bad for Allen. He'll still win, but stupid things like this (intentional or not) are pretty much the only thing that can bring him down. This isn't Watergate, but it is something voters will remember. I imagine the Webb campaign is organizing a flier targeting black communities as we speak (well, if their campaign wasn't so disorganized...).

On another note, if things like this are going to become news, why won't the campaigns invest $40 on a tripod? It makes video watchable, and then they might be able to use the video in an ad without it looking like a bad home movie, no matter how good the material is.

Another Post You Won't Read...

2006-08-01T22:05:00.000-04:00

Ok, so nobody really cares how long bloggers have been in the business. Despite our self-important and grandiose notions that we're changing the world, we're really not doing squat.

Ok, maybe we're reconfirming the suspicions of our readers about their political points of view. But really, what's the difference between yelling at the TV, and arguing on the blogosphere? Well, I guess in the blogosphere you can see what you said once you sober up.

So, a year and half a month after I started this trite little project, I reflect back on why I do this on occasion.

Some do it for fame.

Some do it for money.

Others do it for wine and women (or men, not that there's anything wrong with that...)

I do it to vent.

My current job gives me a great deal of freedom with words, but in a very structured environment. I don't always feel like writing once I get home. I don't always have something to say (unlike others), but when I do, I try to make a point. I don't get into fractious and fruitless arguments, or get myself into too much trouble.

So on my year-plus anniversary of blogging, all I can hope is that you've read my stuff and chuckled. Or better yet, come up with an original thought for yourself.

And no, I'm not giving up on my secret identity either. Much has been made about the "Nots". Not Larry Sabato, Not Gretchen Bulova, Not etc. etc.

Some have opened up and revealed themselves as if they were superheros pulling back the mask... But I'm Not Guy Incognito, and I'm sticking with it.

Another post-debate thought...

2006-07-27T22:51:00.000-04:00

After watching this debate over, and over, and over (hey, it's an obsession and my job!) I may have been a little bit harsh on Webb. However, this debate still showed that his strategy seems flawed.

I'm not really sure exactly who he's going after. He's obviously not diametrically opposed to Allen, in fact he scarily seems like he would still be an active Republican if it weren't for the Iraq war.

To be fair, that has turned a lot of centrist voters to the Democratic side, and solidified blue-leaning votes.

Much has been made about how Virginia is turning blue, primarily because of Tim Kaine's victory last year. However, what's lost in all of this is how bad a candidate Jerry Kilgore was. It was a situation similar to Mark Earley back in 2001.

I'm not sure Webb can pull the same margin out of Northern Virginia, and I haven't seen anything that shows he will pull the same results from Tidewater and Richmond that Kaine did. The Golden Crecent won the day last year, but the rest of the Turkey on Its Back just may well rule the day on November 8th.

And I would love to be a fly on the wall when Allen and Webb sit down and have a beer together once this is all over.

PS - If you get a chance to see the debate, watch it for yourself. It's worth making up your own mind instead of listening to a bunch of partisans in the blogosphere.

What Webb Did Not Do...

2006-07-22T18:00:00.000-04:00

See my post below.

Despite what you'll see at the pro-Webb sites, I thought it was pretty much a complete disaster for him. From an entertainment standpoint (what the average person would think about it) it was pretty boring. There were a couple of good lines, but none so memorable that they stand out. Ok, they are going to have a beer together sometime. I found my mind wandering at times when Webb was talking. That's NOT a good sign, as I'm actually interested and tried to follow him.

Face it, he's just not that dynamic of a speaker, especially when matched up against a professional like Allen.

This is not meant to disparage the man, but he's overmatched in public speaking. And in a voter's mind, that can be a disaster. He lacks the punch, he left too many open opportunities go by. For an average voter, his logic may be well founded, but is difficult to follow.

I did confirm this much, WTVR in Richmond will air the debate in its entirety on its secondary channel (on Comcast digital) this Friday night. I overheard that WDBJ in Roanoke might be doing the same thing (although plans did not seem worked out to me).

Media coverage was an interesting mix. Besides the above, TV coverage included: WSET, WSLS, WVIR, and even NHK (Japanese television).

The panelists were kinda dull. Bob Holsworth did an alright job, but could have pressed the issue a lot more. I feel like he did not challenge the candidates to provide specifics. He only used his moderator's power once to follow up. In a debate that was not limited by TV time, he had the opportunity, but did not use it.

Much will be made about the Craney Island question (although I thought Allen was saying Traney Island). Webb is right, it's a throw-away question. It's a boring technical issue that Allen's aides are probably working on, and not the Senator. It was a gotcha moment, and Allen came of looking like jerk. Of couse Webb looked like a doofus, but a gracious one.

Amazingly, the most timely question was not really asked. What to do about Israel and Lebanon, and Somalia and Ethiopia.

In all, informative yes. Fireworks no. There are at least two more debates planned, and hopefully Webb will improve his public speaking by then.

Right now the score is Allen 30-love.

What Webb Must Do

2006-07-21T22:03:00.000-04:00

It's pretty clear that the Webb camp needs a little momentum going into August. That's when the campaign will get going for real, and when your average Joe will begin paying attention.

To get that "mo" going, he has to pull something special out at the Homestead.

That will show that he's a viable candidate, not only in the minds of donors, but the press as well. Right now he's too much of a sideshow, trying to have his reputation and resume carry the weight.

He must be clear in his position, he must state it with clarity, and not be as ambiguous as he has been for most of the race so far.

And most importantly, he must show that he can think on his feet against a seasoned politician.

I don't play the game of diminished expectations. Last year many republicans said how Kaine was a superior debater than Kilgore, so Jerry only had to hold his own to come away a winner. In the words of Gail Parker, I poo-poo that. R's will be happy to hear that I'll call Webb out on the plush Homestead carpet if he does not come out looking better.

Believe it or not, this debate WILL be televised "live on tape" next week. Perhaps in two markets, although details are still being worked out, so I hear. When I get more details, I'll let you know.

I'll be there in beautiful Hot Springs, and should have some comments Saturday night or Sunday, so check back!

Who's on First?

2006-07-13T18:58:00.000-04:00

So the Webb folks send out a press release stating how their man has agreed to a debate, but the Senator has not.

Good tactic, if it weren't terribly out of touch with the truth. The following is from the Virginia Bar Association's website:

The Virginia Bar Association will host the first campaign debate between Virginia’s Democratic and Republican United States Senate candidates on Saturday, July 22, from 10:30 a.m. to noon, during the VBA’s 116th Summer Meeting at The Homestead in Hot Springs, Virginia. Republican incumbent Senator George Allen has accepted the VBA’s invitation to participate in the debate. The Democrats vying for the party’s nomination, Harris Miller and James Webb, have each been invited, pending the outcome of the Democratic primary on June 13. Robert D. Holsworth, dean of the College of Humanities and Sciences at Virginia Commonwealth University, will serve as moderator. This event continues the decades-long tradition of the VBA hosting an early debate in statewide gubernatorial and U.S. Senate contests before the Association’s annual Summer Meeting. Details of the debate format will be finalized at a later date.

Notice that this was written before the primary, and Allen had already accepted. Perhaps Allen had not filled out the paperwork, but don't make that claim if it's not as easily disproved than this. Or, if it's outright lying, that's not a way to build credibility either.

Third Rail

2006-07-13T18:50:00.000-04:00

It's time to poke fun at Gail Parker.

I'm sure she is a fine, upstanding, and intelligent woman, but the (I) in this race is in serious danger of looking like she's a few cars down from a full train.

For starters, listen to this. This has to be among the worst commercial/jingle that I've ever heard. All it needs is some train whistles blowin'.

Add to that, there's the press release she sent out. If I could find a copy of it I would link it. (Update! I found it! Check out her press release and the bar's response!!!) Basically she claims how she spoke with someone at the Bar Association, and thought she was going to be invited to the debate later this month.

Right on cue, the Bar sent a press release out that she was not going to be invited, and the person she thought invited her to the debate, was actually the receptionist. FUNNY!

Please, if we're going to get good third party candidates (something I am ALL in favor of), make them a little stronger. There are third party views that need to get out there, but with candidates like this, those views are in danger of getting shuffled out.

2006-07-10T23:25:00.000-04:00

So the race for Senate gets its first major national exposure on network (i.e. more than just a mention on CNN). You can view it here.

Go on, watch it. It's worth the 15 minutes of your life. I'll be here waiting...

Still waiting...

You should be almost done...

And we're back.

An interesting piece, I think. It says a lot about the strategies that each campaign is going to employ this year.

Basically, the Allen folks are going to brand Webb as someone who can't make a decision, and are going to not see him as a viable threat to the Senate seat. In reality, he may be a significant threat, but public perception means a whole lot in politics.

For Webb? He's gotten a lot more polished in the last month, but he still needs some help coming across as "Senatorial". His answers must be a lot more crisp and concise. Pieces of a rambling interview can easily be taken out of context and manipulated in the course of the campaign.

Both are trying to be the guy you'd like to sit at a bar with and have a beer. Call it the Karl Rove strategy. Make your guy more likable, and more regular. It's worked time and time again, and there's no reason it can't work in Virginia this year.

It takes a whole lot to unseat an incumbent Senator, and despite what you'll read elsewhere by the folks who have dipped their cups in the Webb KoolAid, I just don't see it right now from the Democratic candidate. He may be a fine, upstanding guy, and I'd love to pick his brain over a game of darts, but right now he's no Senator Webb.

One other note: George Allen does not look good. He seems to have aged significantly lately. Hopefully his health is not a problem. I may not like his politics (and there's a whole lot not to like), but I don't wish him any bodily harm.

Wrangling Webb

2006-06-15T22:37:00.000-04:00

Well, he won.

It shouldn't be surprising to the readers of this blog.

Speaking of blogs, NLS has made a rather bold statement:
"Last night was the first major election that bloggers have ever won for a candidate." - NLS.

Granted, the candidate himself and Mudcat did mention them (of course, they mentioned a lot of other people too). I think the bloggers' roles have been quite limited.

When 150,000+ people voted in this primary, the percentage who actually read any of these diatribes has to be quite minute. It's more like an echo chamber. The same thing keeps getting heard (or read) by the same people, over and over. To make a statement like that shows incredible disrespect for the candidate, and especially the people who have been working to get out the vote. Show me the number of unique visitors, where they were from, and for whom they voted. Just show me a poll that proves that more than 1% of the statewide voters actually has seen one of the blogs, and then I might believe they played a role in the primary.

I just think more people realized that Webb did give the Democratic party a better chance to win the election. But there is a WHOLE lot of work to be done.

For example, money. The internet is a good tool to get the word out, but nothing beats good ol' fashioned cash. Allen has it, Webb doesn't. That's a major disadvantage where TV advertising is still the best way to reach the most voters. Webb's team has yet to prove that they can put together an effective commercial, or even a mailing that doesn't draw attention away from the central message.

That brings me to sunny point #2: Webb's message must be defined... and quick. He cannot simply run as an anti-Iraq War candidate. Yes, he should emphasize his military record, I've yet to hear a concise plan from him on what to do in the current quagmire. His positions on a variety of positions need flushing out. He has to do more than just be the alternative to George Allen. Allen may not be the most popular Senator, but it takes a lot to unseat one. Especially in a state as resistant to change as Virginia.

And onto #3. Webb has got to start looking like a candidate. He needs to get a whole lot more comfortable in front of crowds, and in front of cameras. His delivery is too stiff, he doesn't look like he has a handle on what he's saying (something Allen is exceptional at doing), and would get absolutely crushed in a debate with a professional politician. He needs to start talking to folks instead of reading and reciting. He is obviously an intelligent man. He just needs to be able to think on his feet better and get it out succinctly.

It will take a lot more voters to win the election, especially when the deck is stacked by the marriage amendment. Republicans will be somewhat motivated to go to the polls to insert this piece of trash into the Virginia Constitution. (I'll deal more with the merits of voting down this amendment later.)

Bloggers, if you really want to help, start knocking on some doors. You'll reach far more voters that way, and you won't look like a bunch of ninnies spouting off about how your candidate is godly, and the other guy is Satan (or at least the anti-Christ).

Desperation Song...

2006-06-04T00:30:00.000-04:00

"Nowadays men lead lives of noisy desperation"
James Thurber

Right on time...

If you haven't seen them, Harris Miller is blowing a ton of his own money buying ad time in several TV markets and in major newspapers. There's very little biographical information in them, and they're pretty much attack ads on Jim Webb's politcs, attitude towards women, and admiration for Ronald Reagan.

Meanwhile, Webb is just continuing his public schedule. He's glad-handing, drinking beer, listening to bluegrass, touring the state in combat boots, and raising scant amounts of money.

This combination tells me one major thing: the inside polls must have Miller down, and significantly so.

It's a pattern we've seen as recently as, oh last year. That's right, doesn't this seem almost like a path that Jerry Kilgore went down? Attack on divisive issues, not to bring yourself up but to depress the other candidate's support.

Both of the candidates' public awareness numbers are still pretty bad, so some brief bio ads would probably go a long way. That's the funny thing about attack ads when the public doesn't know either candidate is the negative feeling is usually transferred right back onto the attacker. They rarely work when voters are still forming their opinions of the candidates. Perhaps the people think that the attacker has something to hide.

Now, even though they've raised a pittance, the Webb folks should have been able to get something together to counteract these ads. Of course, there's no need to if the ads aren't working and if the percentage difference is still fairly sizeable. I get the feeling that's the case here.

Now that's not to say that Jim Webb is the perfect candidate. Clearly he has a LOT of flaws (personality, legislative experience, embarrassing past writings, and the fact that he was a Republican until February, just to name a few). However, he still has a pretty good resume... one that can give Allen a run. Like I said before: Webb loses by 2-3 points, Miller loses by 8-9.

After June 13th, the Democratic candidate does not get any rest at all. Right now, George Allen has raised 10 times the money that both of the other candidates have combined. That is a serious hole.

Perhaps not calling in all those debts during the primary will pay off in the long run for the Dem, but still Allen may have a 2-to-1 money advantage come the Fall. Allen has a six year head start in fundraising. That's like the hare having a 3,000 foot head start in the mile run against the tortoise.

Slow and steady does not win that race, or this one either.

A Triumphant Return!!!

2006-05-28T00:00:00.000-04:00

Yawn... So did I miss anything???
- Rip Van Winkle

Well, unless you are calendar-ly challenged, you've noticed I haven't been around here a while.

Why not? Boredom, apathy, laziness, and a few other adjectives that I'm not going to bother looking up in the thesaurus.

Bored with what, you may ask? Well, our political process for starters.

The Democratic primary has pretty much been a wash so far. As I predicted earlier, this primary is just bringing up WAY too much ammunition for the Republicans to use in the general election. Like a fighter after a 15 round bout, whoever wins will not be the same for the next fight had there been no primary. These guys have not done too much to inspire. Jim Webb acts too much like a robot on the campaign trail, and you just get the sense that Harris Miller is just running to have something to do on Friday nights. There's no real ideas being discussed, just the usual slash-and-burn politics... without TV ads because they can't raise enough money.

Blogs are bothering me too. I'm a little sick of the Webb-mania being spread around. That band of misfits has hitched their wagons to a war hero, and are just looking straight ahead, never mind the facts. You know who you are.

What else, you may pry?

How about the budget? I've repeatedly been astounded by the lack of cooperation between the HoD and Senate. Just meet halfway, kiss and make up, and just get something done.

Where's the RPV to try to bring both sides together to strenghten the party? Oh yeah, it's been hijacked by the right-wingers just like the national party! How fun!

Memo to Chichester and Howell: WE REALLY DON'T CARE AS LONG AS THE DMV'S AND MUSEUMS DON'T CLOSE! Really. Just ask Jim Gilmore and Mark Warner.

This brings up two other things I'm a little upset about as well. Why have I heard Jim Gilmore's name lately? Does he REALLY suspect his legacy here in Virginia is strong enough to return to the Governor's mansion, or (good god) Washington??? Surely the people of Virginia cannot be THAT stupid.

And then there's Mark Warner. Quickly on the verge of becoming an also-ran in the '08 presidential race. Just about two months after being the darling, his popularity seems like it's beginning to falter.

Just a few months ago things looked so bright for politics in Virginia. Now it seems like the shades have been opened on the dirty little secret: neither party really has its $#!^ together in the state, and it's not going to change anytime soon.

But I promise, I'll be there with the pooper-scooper to dissect whatever droppings fall from Richmond and the campaign trail.

...and this time, I mean it.

Johnny #5 Needs Input

2006-04-13T00:02:00.000-04:00

This is how I feel some days...

Too often, television news covers politics in simply a "he said-he said" manner. You get one soundbite from one candidate about an issue, and another brief soundbite from the other (if he's available that day).

What specifically can the news business do better? This is not about your perceived bias; this is about substance and style. This is an effort to educate the public in a meaningful, yet entertaining way.

Bloggers are attune to what's going on in the political scene, and how it might be perceived by the general public. Without a formal debate, how can television news better present the candidates' views on issues that matter?

I'll ask the same questions for newspapers and online news journals.

I humbly ask for your input so the people of Virginia can be better educated about our political process.

Thank you in advance for your help.

The results will be consolidated and forwarded to the media outlets in Virginia.

The Big House

2006-03-31T00:10:00.000-05:00

So the General Assembly can't agree on a budget. Ho-hum.

Is anyone else fed up with this?

Once again we see posturing from the Senate and the House Republicans over the budget, the third time in the last five years. Our leaders are batting .600, folks.

This issue has gotten much ink over the past few weeks, but the political side of this issue has received little attention from the MSM, and especially bloggers.

Why?

It's really freaking boring. Most people don't understand why they can't come up with something... ANYTHING!

To the average person who has to deal with a very strict budget just to eat, it's no surprise that they don't fully comprehend wha's happenin'.

Really, this is just a matter of ego. After Warner's tax increase two years ago, and Kaine's subsequent election, the House Republicans are on notice that party disloyalty will not be tolerated. On the Senate side, John Chichester seems as entrenched as ever that the budget is his show, and it will be run as he sees fit.

I put forth the "compromise" that the Senate proposed this week. It will likely be soundly rejected because it continues for two year a "stopgap measure" that the House put forward for the next three months. They knew that it wouldn't fly, but they still floated it to try to look like the good guys in all of this.

Of course, that's part of my problem with the House's budget. It's all stopgap measures for the next two years. They aren't going to literally pave the roads with textbooks, but they aren't really offering any real solutions to what's already an overdue crisis. It's just more of the same passing of the buck.

Somewhere in the middle is what's right for Virginia. Surprise, surprise.

The major losers in this (besides all of the General Assembly members) has to be the counties and cities that are waiting to see exactly how much funding they will receive from the state. Funds for schools, road improvements, improvement grants. They have to wait to see what the state will give them before they can balance their budgets. They must be fuming.

On a side note, where is Gov. Kaine? He's looking quite ineffective right now. I know he's just been in office 2.5 months, but he's been quite invisible. It's already apparent that he's no Mark Warner, and is not getting a "hurumph".

Of course, visibility isn't all that it's cracked up to be when a "film error" makes you look like this:

In the off chance you haven't seen it yet, this is not a drawing. To me it looks like Dick Nixon and Jimmy Carter had a love child. It looks like Warner's going to an 1970's prom... not the White House.

Oh well, maybe next time.

This Bill Will Pass Faster than a Speeding Bullet...

2006-03-07T21:14:00.000-05:00

This one got me thinking.

J. Sarge is clearly better informed and better connected than I (and has been a good friend to this blog in the past). But his article on HB 162 (what I like to call the "Going Postal Bill") got me thinking about the issue of guns in Virginia.

Clearly, this is another issue that really has no bearing on our long term fiscal, social and mental health, but can be made into political hay.

As I said back in September, I'm a sportsman, but I'm just not behind the NRA "They'll take yer guns" mantra. HB 162, to me, is just another extension of their flawed argument.

I'll always side with a property-owners right over almost anything else. I liken this to the "Bullets and Booze" bill of last year that would have allowed guns in bars.

I'd like to ask a majority of the legislators that voted for these bills if they belong to country clubs that allow blacks, women, and Jews to be members. My guess is that they're all for exclusion in that case.

Yes, you do have a right to protect yourself. Yes, you do have the right to self defense. But I've always thought that a clear head and a few words can diffuse a bad situation easier and faster than a Smith and Wesson .44 caliber with a laser sight and optional grenade launcher.

Hey, just ask Jack Reid what can go wrong.

Yeah, I'm calling out Doug Wilder again...

2006-02-28T21:17:00.000-05:00

So I was listening to sports radio again today (as I do from time to time), and I heard about how Doug Wilder was going to announce that some basketball tournament was coming back to Richmond. The commentator said Wilder probably didn't have anything to do with it but "was going to take credit for it anyway."

See, it's not just me.

Anyway, on to more serious issues... I saw a statistic recently about how home assessments in one county (I can't remember which one) went up between 20 and 30 percent this year. The county is responding by dropping the taxation rate from $1 per $100 to $.93 per $100 of assessment. 25% increase vs. 7% decrease.

Am I wrong, but isn't that a HUGE increase in the amount of money rolling into the government? One's a fat 5th grader sitting on a see-saw. The other's the skinny kindergartener. You do the math.

This really hits home for me, as I received my new assessment today, and it went up a sizeable 16%. My next door neighbor had a similar increase. As an elderly widow, she barely made her payment last year. How is she going to do it this year, and how many times is this happening around the city?

Rising assessments are a fact of life... but the change in what it ends up costing is simply too much to bear for many.

Say the average City of Richmond assessment goes up 10-12 percent. Will city leaders (Wilder) drop the taxation rate by anywhere close to that? Highly doubtful. If last year is any indication, they will make a token adjustment, but we will still end up paying more taxes than the previous year. (Remember this from the election?)

So my question to you is, why is this happening? Where is all of this money going?

I can't deal without a roof over my head. And until we get a handle on how much we're paying in the City of Richmond (and other cities), we will continue to see flight to the suburbs, thus rising crime, and thus, more of a tax burden for those who are left behind.

When's Doug Wilder going to take credit for that mess?

An Open Letter to Doug Wilder

2006-02-25T00:24:00.000-05:00

So the Maymont bears died in vain. It happened. Get over it.

The best part of Maymont Park was the bears. The mansion is cool, the Japanese and Italian Gardens are amazing, but the bears were far and away the most transfixing part of an amazing park.

Yes, the parents were stupid in letting their child run free. However, the most reprehensible behavior has been by our fair emperor... er... mayor, Doug Wilder.

Doug, why do you demand to be part of EVERY decision. Granted, city government needed a major enema, but micromanaging and backbiting will get you nowhere, and will earn you few friends.

Delegate responsibility, PLEASE! I bet the Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries knows a helluva lot more about rabies than you do.

Maymont is probably one of the best run parks in Virginia, thanks to a dedicated staff and an amazing corps of volunteers willing to sacrifice their time to keep it beautiful. Let them continue to make sound decisions.

This was not something you need to be getting involved in. The Maymont folks made the right decision (even how painful it had to be). There was egregious human error. However if the bears had been rabid the city would have faced a horrendous lawsuit, and even worse public relations. You simply gauged public opinion by watching the news, and then stuck your nose in and slammed dedicated people who made a difficult but correct decision. Paul Goldman should have taught you better. Does the city really need to be investigating why these bears were euthanized? I'd rather investigate why you held up a great idea to revitalize Shockoe Bottom.

I'll miss the bears greatly. But I'm more frustrated with you.

Why don't you start with trying to lower the gas, water, and sewer rates? Why don't you make substantive cuts so my elderly neighbors will be able to stay in the houses they've owned for 40 years? Why don't you work on fixing up Jackson Ward, Gilpin Court, or other crime ridden areas? Why are people sleeping on the streets of our fair city?

You make me sick. Stick with issues that matter first... and then I'll listen to you about the decision to euthanize two bears.

Special Session Part Deux?

2006-02-24T08:08:00.000-05:00

Anybody remember all the fun the General Assembly members had two years ago, with that really long special session to get stuff done?

It looks like it's about to happen again.

I was watching the local news recently, and there was a report on how far apart the Senate and House are on transportation funding, that they may not have it done by the time the session runs out.

In fact, Del. Jack (Dick Jr.) Reid was quoted he thought it was a 50/50 chance they'd get a compromise done in time.

That's not very optimistic.

However, others say everything's fine. (there is a GREAT quote from Ward Armstrong in there)

On another note, remember that crazy non-state agency that held up the budget as well? Here we go again with that one too. The House has approved
$4.5 million for the Virginia Horse Center, while the Senate is stuck at $890,000 (a continuation of the phase-out budget agreed to two years ago). This would also include an eventual transfer of power over to the private board, meaning the big public/private partnership that this was founded on would be dissolved.

Chichester would not go forward with a budget that included $1.2 million, and in fact has seemingly made it one of his goals to get the center out of state hands. I just don't see him ponying up for that kind of coin, even if he never has to hear the words "Horse Center" again. It's simply too much for him to bear.

Allen 2008

2006-02-20T21:58:00.000-05:00

I'm calling the 2006 Senate race for George Allen 56-42, or 52-47, depending on who he runs against.

Why the substantial win, you may ask? Because the Democrats are about to sqander all of the momentum they had from of Warner.

With the Miller vs. Webb tussle breaking as it is, I just can't see the Dems having any sort of shot. The Democratic primary is going to completely drain whoever wins . It'll kinda be like the Foreman-Lyle fight; both combatants will land haymakers and look great at times, but neither will really be the same afterwards.

As has been said earlier, Webb is not making any friends in the Democratic party, but is still going to drain money and resources. Any sort of fracture breaks a party wide open when you're trying to unseat an incumbent. And this is already a fairly wide fissure.

I believe James Webb will very soon have better name recognition. Just compare "businessman" or "former Secretary of the Navy", and the latter will stick with the voter.

However, he could be done in by the extremes. He's a candidate that will appeal to the middle, so lefty democrats won't bear to vote for a Reaganite. Far righties will see him as a threat to Allen, and in small numbers will go to the polls on primary day to try to keep him out of it.

The middle may not be paying attention and not show up. For the most part, statewide elections are won in the middle, but primaries are won on the wings. However, there are exceptions, and this one could be ripe for one.

This quite interesting article shows why this could be a very tight race IF Webb can get through the primary. Who knows, he could just lose the nomination and run as an independent. THAT would be something to see.

Death and Taxes

2006-02-03T00:25:00.000-05:00

Well, it appears that the "Death Tax" in Virginia will finally be repealed this year. Basically it will revoke the inheritance tax (in a graduated fashion) on estates of a million dollars or more.

I have a feeling that the Senate will pass this no problem. Kaine says he supports it, so no veto a la 2003.

Does anyone realize how little a million dollars is nowadays?

Really, the argument for repealing the death tax has gone from "save the farmers" and "save the minority owned businesses" to "save my uncles estate from the gummint". We have something that the upper and middle classes can get behind together on.

Incorporate rapidly escalating real estate values, an improving stock market, and a generally improving economy, and a million dollar estate is not that rare anymore.

Good lord, the "Death Tax" going away. What's next, the Car Tax?

PULL!!! -- BLAM!

2006-01-31T00:29:00.000-05:00

Oh, the hilarity.

It looks like there's no chance Del. Jack Reid could have possibly "accidentally" fired his gun in his office. (http://richmonddemocrat.blogspot.com/) Yet, he's as firm as the Rock of Ages about his version of things. I still don't buy it, and have been highly suspicious since his "version" of this came out. Oh, maybe he was firing at a rat, but didn't want to admit it (oh, a boy can dream)!

The convenience factor alone, with the bullet hitting a bullet-resistant vest, it's just too much to believe. I agree with the Richmond Democrat: he was fooling around with his pistol, and it went off.

So, I wonder if he's still behind allowing guns in bars? Will the NRA pull his A- rating for being an irresponsible gun owner?

Look, you can search back a few months and get my take on guns, but this is just ridiculous. Just last year he was talking about how responsible concealed weapons permit holders were with firearms and then this happened.

I'm making a stand now. Everybody go to your local sheriff's office and get a gun lock, and mail it to Del. Reid. He could use it.

I'm not joking. I've got a spare, and I'm mailing mine tomorrow.

Del. Jack Reid
General Assembly Building
P.O. Box 406
Richmond, Virginia 23218

Del. Jack Reid
P.O. Box 29566
Richmond, VA 23242

Perhaps this will save the life of a poor page, who is spending the session in the PH Building instead of going to gym class. Surely the next victim won't be a bullet-proof vest.

Let's see if he gets the message about gun safety.

Here a Bill, there a Bill...

2006-01-25T08:06:00.000-05:00

We've somehow made it through the first few weeks of the General Assembly, and no reports of rats biting anyone. Somehow, I'm slightly upset.

So what have we learned so far?

Vicious dogs are threatening to take over Virginia.
If the dogs don't do it, the homosexuals will.
Little League baseball games are the cause of insomnia.
Bob Marshall is still a blowhard.
All of the above must be stopped or the Commonwealth will fall.

Oh yeah, we need more cash to build new roads that will be overcrowded as soon as the last cone is pulled off of it. Sounds like solid policy, eh?

That's pretty much the focus that I've seen. We need some droopy drawers to liven up this joint. Or maybe somebody should try the "Whale Tail" bill, (the appearance of thong underwear above the waistband of pants, shorts or a skirt, according to Merriam-Webster).

Ugh, Chris Peace is now in the General Assembly. This is exactly what I think Virginia does not need right now... Another young, over-the-top, social Republican who is in such a safe district he'll be around for years. Once you figure out what Peace and Ben Cline do for actual jobs, drop me a line. I'd love to hear about it.

GOVERNOR Kaine

2006-01-14T12:47:00.000-05:00

So Timmy is our Governor.

I decided not to brave the cold and rainy weather and am watching the inauguration on public TV. Here's my stream of consciousness notes:

Cannons are neat. I'd really like to own one one day.

Kaine's speech? Blech. We'll see the real one Monday night.

I think Larry Sabato's brain has frozen. He was just talking about drug induced highs.

Warner really did look sad through all of this, as if he's really sorry to be leaving the job.

They're interviewing a Thomas Jefferson impersonator. It's really creepy. There's something really unsettling about him.

Why is Bill Bevins involved in this? He should be spinning discs somewhere, not making a crappy attempt at political commentary. He just said something about how it would have taken Jefferson a week to get to Williamsburg, implying the state's transportation problems were not that bad. Bill, let me introduce you to a wonderful new invention, it's called a CAR. Vroom vroom, beep beep.

Sabato's gone. Maybe he and Bevins got in a mustache cage match. I thought Larry was scrappier than that.

Much is being made about this being in Colonial Williamsburg. I think everybody would rather be in Richmond, like I am right now.

For covering a parade, there's very few pictures of the actual parade. It's kinda like showing a state fair, but just looking at the parking lot the whole time.

Finally, the parade has started. It really looks miserable there. A decent crowd for a crappy day.

Bill Bevins is straight? Well, at least he has kids. Wow.

What would a parade in Virginia be without fifes, drums, and tricorn hats?

Corny joke number 245.

Interesting point. Our last two governors were not born in Virginia. I'd add Allen, who was obviously born in California, baby.

Hmm, with all those children there, wonder if Marcus Vick will make an appearance.

It's still weird seeing women among the ranks at VMI.

Tech regimental band going by. The Highty Tighties are firing up the joint. (insert Marcus Vick joke here)

I swear, one of these days there's going to be a float in a parade that's just one guy walking down the street.

Still wondering where Sabato went. I'd REALLY like to hear him say something crass and embarrassing.

What the hell is the Asian Nation Newspaper?

Oh, that was a very unfortunate shot of a flag-girl... She's going to be made fun of in school because of that.

Asian-Indians of Hampton Roads. THREE GUYS AND A WHEELCHAIR GOING DOWN THE ROAD. Something tells me they didn't exist before the parade.

Even more miserable. It seems after watching the first few groups go by, many people are leaving already. Soon Kaine will be alone on the reviewing stand.

Ugh. It looks like the mud is starting to really flow on the streets... How much longer can this go on?

Someone get Linwood off of that podium. He really doesn't need to be sitting through this.

IT HAPPENED! UVA's Feature Twirler was alone walking down the street! And she dropped the baton RIGHT when the camera cut to her! The hilarity continues! Oh, too perfect.

Marching bands are dead to me. I really don't get them.

More pain. Commentators have to fill time by talking about marching bands. My eyes and ears are bleeding.

For the love of pete... Don't say inaugural balls.

More thoughts later, I can't take this anymore, and there's basketball on.

Government Cheese

2005-12-29T23:28:00.000-05:00

Frankly, it's been pretty darn boring around here lately. Kaine has picked the usual suspects (for the most part) for his staff, and everything's been in a lull for a while.

That's all about to change.

Get ready for photo-red, droopy drawers, (Insert Child's Name Here)'s Law, and rats. That's right, rats. The Old State Library (the temporary home for the GA this year) is reportedly overrun with rats, and I'm not talking about Republicans or lobbyists. Real, hairy, rabid rodents everywhere. They seem to be coming in through the underground pipes and taking up residence in the walls. Gross stuff. This alone should make for an interesting session. I'm guessing an emergency extermination appropriation bill will be passed within the first week.

So, my question for you is this: Who will be the first delegate or senator bitten by a rat? My vote is for Ben Cline. Why? Because everything he says smells like ripe cheese.

So who is your money on?
Winner gets a nice wedge of Manchego.
(I'm not joking, but quality of cheese not guaranteed)

Why Warner (and not Hillary) will be the nominee in '08.

2005-11-13T19:02:00.000-05:00

If you missed Face The Nation this morning, you missed an interesting interview. Warner was the Dem. counterpart to John McCain, but came off looking pretty good. It did look very similar to the hour-long interview on C-Span last week, though.

I see he's gotten his talking points down (listen for "sensible center" "triple bank shot" "comfortable in my own skin" and "fiscal responsibility" in the coming months), and looks like a man on the move.

Right now, the '08 race for president is all about national name recognition. If I mention Hillary, Rudy, or McCain, you know who I'm talking about. Mark does not have it yet, but he's slowly getting closer..

The Democrats want an idealist, but they want someone who will win first and foremost.
Sen. Clinton is the leader for the moment, but there's a lot of time to go, and I say she has no chance down the road.

Why? It's not the fact that she's a woman. It's the fact that she's THAT woman. The Republicans would LOVE to trash her, and have been preparing to do so since 1992. And the Democrats know this.

She'll ride a wave early on, but then it will come crashing down. Remember, the scream didn't do Dean in. His popularity was on the wane already when Democrats realized there was no way he could win. Look for one embarrasing or uncomfortable moment to do her in.

With Warner, they'd have a much harder time. Running as a fiscally-conservative centrist, he'd take away one argument there. Yes, there would be the standard "He'll raise your taxes" ads, but this could easily be blunted by the fact that Warner cut jobs and services before the cleverly titled 'tax reform' of last year. In fact, he could actually out-do the GOP on the issue: just look at the amazingly massive new spending in this year's Transportation Bill to see.

After the Virginia Governor's race, Republicans are talking about "firming up the base", when what they really need to be doing is appealing to the middle. That is where Kilgore lost. He focused on wedge issues that in the end, nobody really cared about. The base was there and voted, it was the rest of us that appealed to Kaine. In almost any election, whoever takes the middle walks away a winner, and we saw exactly that here.

That's why Warner will win. For Democrats, he's a candidate who can move into Washington.

But in the meantime, he must work on his name recognition (a planned trip to New Hampshire will help), and to generally get his name out there. Being mentioned as a possible candidate is a good start, but he can't announce his intentions too early or the mystique will be gone.

He also needs to build credibility on foreign issues. He's got a start, but there needs to be much more. He needs another trip abroad sometime next year, and to generally be seen with as many troops as possible, as soon as possible.

So what does he do right now? Stay the course, and not forget Virginia over the next two months. His legacy here right now is pretty good, and he shouldn't risk doing anything to muck it up.

Very interesting, Mr. Bond...

2005-11-09T21:31:00.000-05:00

Tim Bill and Bob. Sounds like the cast of a perverted childrens show.

So what does this election really mean? Is it an indictment of Bush? Well, I'd attribute a couple tenths of a percent to that, but nothing more. I think this is really more an indictment on the slate of candidates the Republicans put forward, and proof that Mark Warner has a bright future in politics.

Deeds (as I've said, a fine and decent man) really needed a better base to work from. If he'd done slightly better in ANY part of Virginia, he would have won. Bristol, Winchester, or even Buena Vista would have done it. I'm actually amazed that he did as well as he did. To come from nowhere, be outspent, and still have amazingly low name recognition ratings, he put up one hell of a fight. Fewer than 2000 votes out of nearly 2,000,000 cast. That's a crushing way to lose. There's still a sliver of hope for Creigh, through the possibility of absentee ballots that still might be out there and the obvious recount that's coming.

I really think that Kaine pulled the rest of the party up. But most of his support comes from Warner. Take away his strong support from the public and these races would have easily been a GOP sweep, from the Gov's race to the Delegates. This has to be seen as a plus for his presidential aspirations. He's well funded, wildly popular in his home state, can energize his base, and appeals to the middle. His stock is seriously on the rise.

Take a look at just one obscure county from the last three elections. Henry County, tucked all the way down there in Southside, went 56% for Gilmore in '97. Warner won it with 60+ in '01, and Kaine took it with 51%. Kaine dominated in his strongholds, and took some surprising moral victories where you'd think Kilgore would have walked away with the vote.(read: SWVA and Shenandoah Valley)

Virginia's voters think we're better off than we were four years ago, and in the eyes of Virginia's voters, Tim has some big shoes to fill. Let's hope for Virginia's sake they're still thinking that way four years from now, because I really don't want to go back to where we were when Governor Jim left town.

Almost forgot!

2005-11-07T23:27:00.000-05:00

My endorsements lie as thus...

Gov. = Kaine
AG = Creigh
Lt. Gov = None of the above

'Twas the night before the election...

2005-11-07T23:22:00.000-05:00

Well, the latest poll came out. SurveyUSA (tradtionally a right-leaning poll) showed Kaine with a 9 point lead. They then amended their results to show a 5 point lead because of some inconsistancies. That's still outside the 3.5% margin of error.

I still like Kaine to win in a close race, followed up by a Republican sweep of the lower races. GOP gains one in the House.

Tuesday is the day we've all been waiting for all these months. No matter what happens, let's hope for a clean election without controversies.

It's time... Let the best man win.

Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!

2005-11-05T23:35:00.000-05:00

Well, it's the weekend before the election, and I've gone into a shell, just like the campaigns.

It's all about GOTV, Get Out The Vote.

President Bush is coming to Richmond the night before the election, but I really don't think this will have any effect on the race. His approval numbers in Virginia are holding steady at about 51%. But at this rally, all of the questions by the national press (if there is actual press availability) are going to be about his very poor trip to South America. I still wouldn't be surprised if the event got cancelled at the last moment.

For the most part, the voters' minds are decided, and it all depends on the turnout. However for the Repubs, the weather is supposed to be nice, and that will not depress the Dems vote (the logic being that bad weather keeps inner city voters away from the polls).

It's prediction time, and here I go on the record.

Kaine 48.4%
Kilgore 48.1%
Potts 3.5%

Could this be wrong? Aboslutely. Republicans in Virginia almost always get more of the vote than the polls show. However, with the number of undecideds left (about 7%), and the fact that undecideds are going about 2-for-1 for Kaine, I think he'll squeak through.

Virginia Tech lost, so the SW voters will be depressed, and that leaves me to believe they will have a lower turnout than other parts of the state (farfetched idea, but hey, why not?)

After that, it's a split ticket. Byrne has shown amazing growth in the past two months, but I still don't think she beats Bolling. McDonnell wins in a wash (although I know for a fact that Creigh Deeds is a good and decent man...)

No major moves in the House of Delegates, maybe +1 for the Republicans.

But hey, we still have to vote. No matter who you support, just go vote. It's simple, and gives you a warm fuzzy feeling of social responsibility. If you don't, I don't want to hear you whining and complaining once the election's over.

Potts no quitter... Where's Dougie?

2005-11-01T01:30:00.000-05:00

So, Senator Russ held a press conference today to denounce the attacks by Jerry Kilgore, and to announce that he's staying in the race. Seriously.

He also claimed that he has more support than the polls show. I think he'll garner only about 2-3 percent in the election, as people will be willing to go out on a limb for a telephone poll, but either won't show up on election, or can't pull the trigger on pulling the lever for the independent.

It's clear that Russ is disenchanted with the current state of the Republican party. I think he knows that if he dropped out, it would boost Kilgore. Of his measley 4-5% of voters, probably 70% in my estimation would go to Jerry, but that's enough to tip the election. That's why he's staying in.

To me, a bigger story in this election so far has to be Doug Wilder. We're still awaiting his endorsement for Governor, with just about a week to go.

Today, he sent a letter to Creigh Deeds saying he would not support his candidacy because of Creigh's support loosening some gun restrictions. Doug says this is the first time since he started in politics he has not supported a Democratic candidate in a statewide office (what about Chuck Robb's runs years ago? public support then?) This is a blow to Creigh, who needed a boost in Richmond to try to combat McDonnell's strong showing in DC, Richmond, and Hampton Roads. I think we can officially call this race, because without a Doug endorsement, Creigh just won't have enough punch to make up the difference. I'll call it, but that doesn't mean I'm happy about it.

When it comes to Governor, Wilder has to be close to endorsing Kaine, but this close to the election it can't have that much of an effect. He dangled his endorsement in an attempt to strongarm Warner into putting money into a fund helping the poor pay their heating costs this winter, but the Gov did not bite. I anticipate a nod to Kaine later this week, possibly on Friday (because that's when news viewership is lowest, as a sign that he's doing it, but he's not exactly happy about it). Will it mean anything? Not nearly as much as it would have about two weeks ago.

I'm glad the death penalty ads have quieted down. I didn't like them at all to begin with, and there are much more important matters. Whether a dozen or so murderers get the gas doesn't quite compare with the major issues like transportation, the budget surplus, and Virginia's fiscal outlook over the next biennium.

So sit back, grab some 'corn, and enjoy the rest of the ride. It's going to be bumpy, but the end is in sight.

Is it wrong to be bad?

2005-10-27T22:44:00.000-04:00

"Even if there was a "no-commercial" agreement, I'd air it anyway. This race has already been dirty enough, and filled with enough lies, distortion, and vitriol to make that fair game."

Apparently the Kaine campaign has been reading my stuff. I wrote the above quote on Sept. 14th, and now it looks like it's coming true.

In case you haven't heard, the Kaine campaign is "secretly" polling to see whether using video from the Fairfax untelevised debate would leave a bad taste in voter's mouths. Oh yeah, that's because they signed a "no-use" agreement before the debate. Otherwise it would be a no-brainer, and you would have seen this about three thousand times already. It's the video of Kilgore looking incredibly stupid, and completely outsmarted by Tim Russert.

Would it be unethical to air this video even though they agreed not to? Well, yes. Would it be wrong? Some would make the argument that it wouldn't be.

Kainefolk feel that their positions have been so distorted by the Kilfolk that any means are fair game in winning the election. This includes breaking a promise between politicians (like that hasn't happened two thousand times in the last hour).

My prediction? You are going to see this video in an ad right before the election. Something about "Jerry Kilgore can't make up his mind and isn't that smart. Do you really want him in control of the finances of this state?" Your basic depress the opposition's turnout move. Aired two days before the election, this wouldn't give the Kilfolk time to respond in any meaningful way.

This race is too close not to bend some rules, whether you think it's right or wrong. Both sides have already done it. In the final week and a half of a deadlocked election, nothing is sacred. Even a promise written on paper.

The Plural of Doofus is Doofi

2005-10-26T13:37:00.000-04:00

(pronounced doof-EYE)

As we wind down the last two weeks of this election, I'm struck by the lack of attention paid to it. Yes, the candidates have had to deal with other issues, like a slew of hurricanes and a political mess in Washington, but this is truly amazing.

The lack of interest has to be related to the fact that this race has been boiled down to its worst. Practically, the death penalty is not THAT important, nor is abortion, gun rights, or the slew of other ancillary issues that have dominated this campaign.

The most important voters still care about those issues that will affect their homes the most. Economy, education, and transportation. Unfortunately, these issues don't get people elected too often. There's a reason the attack ads are airing so much: they work for the most part. But I've yet to see a concentrated and positive ad campaign on any of these real and urgent issues. In this race, right now, I think that would translate better than the negativity we've seen.

The staffs are concentrating too much on wedge issues, or deflecting the latest salvo from their opponent to draw up anything clear, concise, and important. We've got less than two weeks to go, folks. Now's the time to make your push.

To the political doofi: Show some vision, and you'll have jobs come January.

This Will be the Death of Me...

2005-10-15T13:11:00.000-04:00

Well, if you haven't seen Jerry Kilgore's latest ads, you're missing a treat. In one of them, a father laments the loss of his son and daughter in law who were shot to death in a cocaine deal gone bad. Kaine worked as a defense attorney for a total of 48 minutes on the case, and he's being attacked for it.

Whether you like it or not, and no matter how hideous their crimes, defendants in Capital Murder cases deserve legal representation. The lawyers that take their cases are woefully underpaid, and horribly overworked. Most attorneys who represent these defendents consider the work to be pro-bono, the pay is so bad. It's a whole lot more involved than volunteering at the local soup kitchen, or to pick up trash on the side of the road. These attornies have a responsibility to represent their clients in the most effective manner possible. This service should be seen as a positive, and not a negative.

Innocent men have been put on death row. Earl Washington comes to mind, as the most famous case in Virginia. There are still many people who are convinced that Earl Bramblett did not commit the murder for which he was executed.

Capital murder trials are open to the public, yet almost nobody sits and actually watches them. I've been through three, from jury selection to sentencing. Even in the most clear cut case, the burden that a jury feels is extreme. In the most grisly murder in which I've heard evidence, I saw 11 out of 12 jurors bawling as they sentenced a young man to die for his crimes. It was not a decision they took lightly. I must admit, I had serious reservations about the sentence myself, even though this man took no mercy on his victim, stabbing her dozens of times.

Kilgore seems to have no conscience about it, and wants to swing the death penalty around like a bullwhip. There is a time for severe punishment, but this is the ultimate punishment, and should not be handed down lightly. (as a side, note in the debate when Kilgore wished for the death penalty in the Behl case, before there was evidence of a murder in commission of another felony, or even a murder at all.) He's using this emotional and highly complex issue as a simple election tool, and it's far too complex for that.

Plain and simple, these are very effective, biting to the bone ads. Of course, they are highly offensive, and in horrible taste. (I think too much is being made of the Hitler reference)
This is what you get when you have the ad team that created the not-exactly-truthful Swift Boat Ads that changed the face of last year's presidential election. (notice they look exactly like them, same lighting, same music, just different words)

This is the point where this race has gotten uglier than Gary Busey after a three day binge. I feel like I need a shower.

Yo Mama!

2005-10-09T22:27:00.000-04:00

Well, did you watch?

Did you see what you expected? Of course you did. Hope you enjoyed hearing the canned campaign lines, practiced over hundreds of pancake breakfasts, and small town fairs.

I'll withhold my comments for the moment, and share the following:

I watched with two people: a staunch conservative, and an undecided voter. And if their views are similar to the rest of the public, Kilgore's in for a lot of trouble after this.

At the end, the undecided plainly said, "Well, I know who I'm voting for." The staunch conservative was clearly depressed, and very unenthusiastic. After the debate we got into a conversation about what's wrong with the Republican Party. If she was registered to vote in Virginia (resident of another state), she might not show up at the polls. She was that down on Jerry.

Their views? Jerry was evasive, smarmy, and evasive again. Kaine clearly had more zingers, better lines, and just plain looked more like a governor than Kilgore. "When is his head going to explode?" was the best comment I heard...

Both were disappointed about the negativity of the debate, but both clearly said Kilgore responded with more vitriol, and were turned off.

My personal feeling is Jerry did not present a case as to why people should vote for him, instead just saying why they should NOT vote for Kaine. It almost looked like there was a hint of desperation in some of his answers. Like he knew it was slipping away. Offhand, I anticipate a 2-4% bump for Kaine. Whether he can hold it through election day is another question.

Of course, not known is how many people actually watched it. The Redskins game was finishing up, the NASCAR fans were still in a sausage and malt liquor induced coma from an afternoon race, and the baseball playoff game literally set a record. This was a sports nut's dream. And then there was the debate.

I'll be very interested to hear about the overnight ratings in the metered markets. That will determine the true impact.

Now here's my Best, Worst and Most Unusual of Sunday's debate:

Best Dressed: Kilgore. (That snazzy blue tie was just to DIE for!)

Worst Dressed: The woman from the Virginian-Pilot

Most uncomfortable on camera: (see above)

Best Presentation: That Kaine feller, with them cityfied words

Best Panelist: AP Bob

Worst Panelist: Sabrina Squires

Most Unusual Question: Anything from Sabrina Squires

Most Rambling Question: Anything from Jay Warren ("I have just one question... in 26 parts.")

Best Answer: -"No."- by Tim Kaine on repealing the one handgun a month law

Worst Answer: Somebody narrow the field down to 50 for me, and I'll pick one

Worst line: Kilgore "I'll be the governor who won't raise the gas tax."

Worst goof: Kilgore saying "When he's governor..."

Worst Ad: TIE. The Jib-Jab looking ad for Kilgore shown immediately after the debate was too scary, and Kaine's attack ad came after he had just pledged to play nicer the rest of the way. Oops!

Most unusual statistic: I THINK Kaine said "liberal" more times than Kilgore. I halfway kept count, but would be floored if this truly happened (by the way, Kaine did say "Warner" more than a dozen times. Kilgore? Less than five.)

Best Unusual Answer: The last one, where Kaine approved of Kilgore's plan to make absentee ballots more accesible to the public. Tim said this with an obvious wry smile on his face. Perhaps a not so subtle jab at Scott County Registrar Willie Mae Kilgore's legal problems? Anybody else pick up on this one?

(Feel free to add your own superlatives, but only if they're funny. This politics stuff has gotten way too serious!)

Why you should watch...

2005-10-09T12:14:00.000-04:00

So, tonight's the one and only televised debate in the Governor's race. You really should watch, but not to be informed. You really need to watch to see the lack of orginiality in this race.

Count the talking points that we've all seen before. Count the instances of mindless repetition and lack of creativity. Count the same ol' cliches that we've seen over and over again.

And then tell me you're not sick of what you saw.

I, for one, am still waiting to hear some ideas that can actually be put into place. I'm tired of hearing promises that can never be put into place. This race has become a high school government election, with one promising more drink machines, and the other promising better toilet paper.

It's become clear to me that no matter who wins this election, the real person leading in Richmond is Sen. John Chichester. Whether you like it or not, he's the one wielding the power when it comes down to the state budget.

So sit back, with a bag 0f corn tonight. Don't cheer, don't scream at who you don't like, and for pete's sakes, don't get your hopes up for tonight's debate or for the next four years.

Of course, I'll have my thoughts on the debate sometime later.

How Far Can It Go? (Part Deux)

2005-09-21T23:17:00.000-04:00

Richmonders should understand what I'm talking about. Everybody else, take it as a serious warning because it's probably already started where you live.

A few posts below, I commented on how the state is destroying its heritage by mowing over its family farms in favor of expanded commerce. Now I've realized this unimpeded growth is hurting us economically as well.

Ok, I get it: America likes big. From our football players, 18 screen cineplexes, to the local Super Wal-Mart. Can you imagine anywhere else in the world the "Big Gulp" or gut-busting, 2400 calorie hamburgers would be so successful? (And at the same time waifish women are held at the pillar of society. The contradictions and hypocrisies are astounding.)

Today, it has come to my attention that the two remaining pieces of open land in Short Pump are soon to be plowed and paved, and yet another mall will stand where flowing grass once did. What used to be pristine countryside is now faux stucco.

We live very much in what we consider to be a disposable society. I accept that. I don't think the beginnings of a seismic shift in societal patterns can be achieved until the next major economic downturn. But our leaders, state and especially local, have to start thinking about this urgent issue.

What I'm trying to say is basically this: suburban sprawl is slowly killing our state and our country.

Now, I'm all for free enterprise and free commerce. However, if we don't get a handle on our growth, Virginia is not going to come out better. Aesthetics do count for something, folks.

How is this hurting us economically? Well, it just happens to be the biggest problem Virginia is facing: transportation.

As we are a mobile country, more of the development like we see in Short Pump is actually bad for us. As we expand outward from our cities, rural areas need massive new roads to get people moving. Our cities are relatively able to handle the traffic. They're based on high volume, but that's not where we're growing.

We're talking about MILES of expansion and bad growth that has come on us like a cancer. It's like the old yarn about the frog in the frying pan. If you throw a frog in boiling water, he'll thrash around and die a horrible death. If you put him in cool water and turn the heat on, he never notices that he's dying until it's too late.

If you really want to see how mobile we are as a population, just look at the opposing lanes the next time you're driving. Drive around for a day and guess at the percentage of people you see driving alone in their cars. The results will astound you.

Instead of recycling plastic bottles, we should really be making recycling our state our first priority.

So, what's the answer? More regional cooperation, and growth that actually has some sort of planning involved. I want to see more assistance and incentives for companies and stores to take existing property and redevelop it to their purposes. Let's use the land we've already developed instead of raiding the countryside. All of our transportation conversations as a state has been about funding. Let's talk about how we can limit spending through intelligent growth.

I'll do my part. No shopping at the mega-mallfor some gadget I don't need. No more trips to WalMart for cheap plastic crap. More online shopping. The technology is here, let's use it.

I'll do my part. Will you do yours?

Dotting his I's and crossing his 's.

2005-09-16T23:55:00.000-04:00

If a hundred monkeys sat a a hundred computers, wouldn't one of them figure out how to use the spellchecker?

Look at the above photo. Look at it again. Look to the right of the corn dog (yeah, real subtle use of the corn dog guys). That's right, the sign says "transporation". Forgot that dang "t".

Yup, this mailing is going out to tens of thousands of prospective voters, and they couldn't even get the spelling of "transportation" right.

So what does this say about the Kilgore folks actually looking at the fine print of their actual transportation plan?

Mistakes happen, but not when you're spending tens of thousands of dollars to produce and mail a piece like this.

A "Hypothetical" Blunder

2005-09-14T20:04:00.000-04:00

To truly understand this post, I urge you to check out the link below.

It's worth 4:36 of your life to see a politician get completely embarrassed like few ever do in their careers.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content//video/2005/09/13/VI2005091301465.html

Think what you will of Tim Russert's politics. I personally think he enjoys putting politicos in their place more than he does destroying conservative platforms. Yes, he's frequently demonized as the personification of the "liberal" media (don't get me started on that), but he's darn good with a zinger from time to time.

This is a very real disaster in the Kilgore camp. If this clip isn't in a Kaine commercial within the next week, I'll know that his handlers are entirely too disorganized to win the election (unless Kilgore wouldn't agree to the debate unless none of it was allowed in commercials).

I'll admit, I wasn't at the debate, and I've only seen what's available online. But there's no question that Kilgore's poor performance is already being felt. If you look at some right-focused blog, they're already questioning whether this doofus can win, even with a 7 point lead.

People will spin that Kaine is such a master debater that it's no surprise that he won the debate. Whatever.

How can you possibly fall into a trap that was laid with so little camoflage, and react so badly?

Jerry just got flustered, which is probably the second biggest no-no in politics (the first being the live boy or dead girl thing...) How someone could be so unprepared for such an obvious follow up question is beyond me.

It's already a momentum changer, if only it discourages the Republican base (which there is some evidence it has).

It could cost Kilgore the election if it is played right by Kaine. Even if there was a "no-commercial" agreement, I'd air it anyway. This race has already been dirty enough, and filled with enough lies, distortion, and vitriol to make that fair game.

Oh, lord, I can't wait for October 9th.

Why Katrina is not important to me...

2005-09-10T02:49:00.000-04:00

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina is certainly a national tragedy and one that will impact all of our lives for years to come. There's plenty of blame to go around, from local, state, and federal agencies.

However, this is the one and only time I'll mention it here.

Other blogs have been bogged down in assigning blame for the discraceful relief efforts. That will not happen here.

Because I want to remain true to my roots. This is a Virginia blog, focused on the upcoming races in November. If I wanted to write about Katrina or the Bush administration, I'd start another blog. Lord knows, there's plenty of material there. Those blogs are out there. Find them if you want to voice your opinion.

WHEN a major hurricane hits Virginia (and in this current 20-30 year cycle of more and more powerful hurricanes I'd lay money down that it will happen), then it will be relevant to the ideals of this blog.

There are serious issues along the Gulf Coast (it is more that just New Orleans, you know). There are also serious issues that are more immediate to us as residents of Virginia. Fixing transportation, improving the quality of our schools, maintaining the fiscal stability of Virginia, ensuring the personal security of our residents, and protecting what makes the Old Dominion great.

Let's focus on the state of our own affairs first.

Why Ben Cline is wrong (again)

2005-09-10T00:41:00.000-04:00

So today, Rep. Delegate Ben Cline stood alongside Sen. Steve Newman at a gas station trying to urge Virginia to purge its gas tax because of the high cost of fuel.

Cline says it would cost Virginia about 20% of the surplus (minus the rainy day donation) to enact this, and this is what needs to happen to keep families in Virginia moving.

Ben may be a nice, if naive guy, but he's WAY out of his league here.

Basically, Ben is a relative lightweight in the GA. A sure vote for the GOP without question or conscience. A former chief advisor to Goodlatte, he's basically fallen into his current position.

If not guarded by a district specifically designed to protect Vance Wilkins, he would have been put out on his ass by Mimi Elrod in the special election. Democrat David Cox (a fine and decent man as well as a minister) has matched him virtually dollar for dollar in fundraising in the 2oo5 race. David, with virtually no political experience, is a far better choice for that area.

When Ben Cline speaks, it's almost verbatim of the Republican party platform that would make Rush Limbaugh blush. I get the feeling he doesn't really understand how his "ideas" would translate to actual fiscal policy. The "pain in the gas" is just another example.

Why would repealing the gas tax be a bad idea? Well, first of all, it's a progressive usage tax. It's one of those that only affects those who use more fuel than the rest of us, primarily SUV-drivers (who tend to be predominantly better off).

Secondly, gas prices really aren't high enough to destroy family budgets. A 13 dollar difference for a 15 gallon fill-up from a year ago is not bankrupting the citizens of Virginia. An inconvenience? Absolutely. A bankbuster? No. (although wait until home heating bills come calling this winter)

It's a simple matter of supply and demand. When Virginians demand less gas, the supply will go up, and prices will drop. The government does NOT need to fiddle with this free enterprise.

It's time the voters of Rockbridge, Augusta, and Amherst Counties put this political poseur where he belongs: living on his parents' farm.

On the Curve

2005-09-07T22:25:00.000-04:00

For far too long, I've dealt with Kilgore's ridiculous proposals. Now it's time to deconstruct one of Kaine's. And it's one of his biggies: education.

Kilgore stood on Church Hill recently, overlooking the City of Richmond, attacking Kaine's record on education while Tim was Mayor of Richmond. Jerry said basically that Richmond City's school system was the worst in the state, yadda yadda yadda... Today Kaine held a widely ignored (for good reason) press conference touting his record of achievement on education as Mayor of this fine city. He basically said dropout rates fell, test scores improved, and on and on and on.

Both are right, and both are SO wrong.

While leading Richmond, Kaine was part of a "weak mayor" system. Basically, he was an elected councilman, voted by his fellow councilmembers to lead them. (I was at that vote in Richmond City Chambers, and it was a small surprise when it happened.) Compare this with the mayor at large (or the "strong mayor" system) in which Doug Wilder now rules.

As mayor, Tim Kaine had as much to do with education in Richmond as Tucker Carlson has to do with fair and unbiased reporting.

The real story of education in Virginia is about funding and feuds between City Councils (and Boards of Sups.) and the elected School Boards. The school board sets a budget, requests the money from the locality, and hopes they get what they want.

Add on to that the Standards of Quality restrictions that we have in Virginia, the absurd No Child Left Behind act, the Standards of Learning, and the plethora of other requirements like the ADA. Basically if anything has a catchy name and sounds like it's going to produce better schools, it sails through the legislature. Really, those acts are putting more restrictions on the people that matter most in education: the teachers.

With the amount of oversight and bureaucracy that we have it's no wonder that we're getting so little in results per dollar spent in education. And in many cases the results that we are getting are from playing fast and loose with statistics. Recently education leaders had the gall to say "We are not reducing the standards in Virginia" when Virginia was LOWERING THE STANDARD FOR WHAT WAS CONSIDERED A PASSING SCHOOL IN VIRGINIA.

Children who are at risk of lowering the mean are being held back a year, or are magically skipped the all important testing year after repeating the same grade. This is done solely to make the grade.

I am not making this up, folks. And it's happening all over the country.

So, what's Kaine's record on education? He voted to increase a local school budget a couple of times, and that's pretty much it.

Boiled down, both Kilgore and Kaine are wrong in their assertions about what the other has done about education. Unfortunately, these issues are far too complex to hold the voters' attention.

Throwing more money at the problem is not the answer. Increasing so-called "accountability" is not the answer either.

I still think that teacher pay is the best answer to our problems. Smaller class sizes, better qualified teachers, less oversight, and fewer tests to me seems to be the answer to our educational woes.

I'll put it this way. A friend of mine is a young teacher. She has two years of experience and can get a job literally anywhere in Virginia. She's had offers, but refused.

Her mother is also a teacher, and would like to move. In fact, she prefers teaching in the "worst" of schools. She can't get a job anywhere else because it would cost a school system more to hire her than find someone fresh out of college. This is not the winning equation. Young teachers are in such a demand because school systems would rather replace their established and experienced teachers with cheaper help. Is there any other boss that would rather have inexpensive over experience?

Think back to the teacher that made a difference in your life.

Was it the one who went by the book, and taught to the standardized test as so many are forced to do? Or was it the one who went on her own to inspire you to think critically?

I think I know the answer.

Coming Out With Both Barrels

2005-09-01T22:58:00.000-04:00

Nothing gets copied in politics like a good idea.

So now we have "Sportsmen for Kaine", and "Sportsmen for Kilgore". Hmmm... Sounds a lot like "Sportsmen for Warner" circa 2001.

Besides obvious pandering to the "Bubba Vote" (as Mudcat Saunders likes to call them), this is a flat out attempt to ignite or defuse the classic argument over 2nd amendment rights. Pretty thinly veiled attempts, too. I don't think they're talking about stocking rates, shad restoration, or bag limits here. Kilgore wants to show he's manly. Kaine wants to show that he's not a gun-grabber.

Really, when do you think was the last time that Kaine or Kilgore woke up at 2:30 to climb into a tree stand all alone? Kaine probably couldn't find a deer rub if he was hugging it. Kilgore would probably be afraid he'd break a nail and mess up his overly-moussed hair in those icky woods.

These moves are really not even worth the effort. The Warner bluegrass song excited the voting public more than "Sportsmen for Warner" in 2001. But back then it was obviously excellent planning because that group was fresh on the heels of the "right to hunt and fish amendment." Now it just looks like unimaginative pandering. They could have at least picked original names and slogans.

So now it's boiled down to "He hates guns." "No I don't, watch me shoot skeet."

The pro-gun argument has been flawed for so many years. You really do not need to stockpile firearms in case the Commies come calling. That's what the military is for. Is a revolt against the government anywhere close to happening? Maybe in New Orleans, but not here. Is someone going to break into your house while your family is sleeping? It happens, but the chances are far too remote to live in fear.

Where do you draw the line? Do bazookas really need to be legal for everyone? If you think that's the case, there's some nice groups in Montana, Michigan, and Waco that you should talk to. They are extremists with too little to do, and too much to hate. And real hunters and fishermen should be ashamed that they're generally supporting the same ideas.

Relax, guys. Nobody's going to take your precious Lugers, Brownings, Glocks, or Winchesters away. It's just not going to happen in Virginia, no matter who is in the Governor's mansion.

I say all of this as a proud sportsman and gun owner (x2) myself. A Browning pump shotgun and a .308 Winchester. Nice guns, used for target practice and Bambi blasting. Nothing more.

Frankly, the NRA scares me. The should protect my rifle, and not the nut in the woods who has to have his full auto AK-47 with the 400 round drum attachment, or the thug packing heat so somebody won't try to steal his income from streetcorner commerce. "From my cold dead hand" has become all too common, except it is police collecting evidence and not attempts at registration.

So will this argument really carry traction in this campaign? I hope not, because no matter who wins, nothing drastic is going to happen to gun rights. There are much more important issues in Virginia, like the 350 gun related murders and manslaughters in Virginia in 2004. THAT'S the issue on which our focus should lie.

At the candidates debate...

2005-08-23T23:29:00.000-04:00

Well, Russ Potts will be in a gubernatorial debate after all! Yup, at the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce!

Won't it be so much fun to see all three candidates debate on the same day? It will be a picture of freedom, and will inspire confidence in the American electoral process.

WELL, almost. While it is true that all three will be debating, it just won't be AT THE SAME TIME. That's right, we get the Kaine/Kilgore scheduled debate, and then Kaine will be pulling double duty by debating just Potts afterwards.

Both Kaine and Potts sent out press releases trumpeting this second debate. Especially Kaine, who had a nice little jab at Kilgore by saying he was going to debate "both of my Republican opponents." Quite obviously he's trying to remind the voters of Virginia that Potts is indeed a member of the GOP, something Kilgore has not acknowledged at all. Potts had a nice little jab at Kilgore's refusal to include him as well.

What is this doing? Just getting more play for Potts. More sympathy, and more credibility. It almost makes you wonder about Potts' true motivation in this role. Does this go deeper than the Republican divide over tax reform (hikes)? Could it be that a deep divide between fiscal conservatives and the ones trying to make a radical social shift to the far right actually exists?

Tim Kaine has little to fear by bringing Potts in, it seems. He clearly thinks that Potts will mostly pull votes from Kilgore, and he wants Russ to have as much airtime as possible since he's not too much of a threat to his own candidacy.

Ol' Russ has stated that if he's polling at around 27% by the end of September he has an excellent chance of winning this race. Optimistic, but credible. However, if he's still hovering around 9-12% could he fold up his tent and throw his support behind Kaine? His rhetoric against his fellow Republican has filled with vitriol throughout this race it's clear he does not think much of Kilgore. But as you can read below, Dougie Wilder could throw a major monkey wrench into the works (by the way, he's meeting with Potts on Wednesday).

Weirder things have happened in Virginia politics. And my gut tells me that there's going to be more twists in this race before election day than a Patricia Cornwell novel. Now's when it starts to get fun.

More debate on the debate, and this time I'm right!

2005-08-20T01:57:00.000-04:00

There has been much ado on the debate on the debate lately. Larry Sabato penned this response to several editorials imploring the debate commission (and Jerry Kilgore) to include Independent Russ Potts:

“To the Editor: “Regarding your editorial on independent gubernatorial candidate H. Russell Potts Jr. ("A Radical in Virginia"), and his exclusion from candidate debates, you make a serious error. The editorial reads: "That arbitrary condition [the 15 percent rule for inclusion] was set by the Kilgore campaign and agreed to by the debate's sponsor, the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia." Nothing could be further from the truth.
“First, the 15 percent rule is certainly not arbitrary. It is the established standard at the national level, via the Commission on Presidential Debates, and it is the established standard in Virginia. Just to cite one example, when we had our 2001 gubernatorial TV debate (sponsored by the Center) in October, we used the very same 15 percent standard, which resulted in the exclusion of Libertarian William Redpath, who had filed the necessary signatures and secured a place on the November ballot. When we consulted with legal experts before making our debate proposal this year, the one thing they insisted upon was that we should be consistent and not arbitrary, and therefore should maintain the same standard used for years and years in considering Mr. Potts' independent candidacy. That is precisely what we did, and so your word "arbitrary" should in fact have read "consistent."
“Second, the Center, not the Kilgore campaign as your editorial states, proposed the 15 percent rule in our original proposal to the campaigns in May. The Kilgore campaign immediately balked. We could have had a debate agreement in May had we caved in, but instead we held firm for about four months, insisting that the debate needed to provide a reasonable, consistent way for Potts to qualify. At several points, it appeared that our debate had been shelved permanently because we would not budge on that principle. Finally, under pressure to agree to a statewide TV debate, the Kilgore campaign relented a couple of weeks ago. Our position never changed; the Kilgore camp's position changed.
“Our debate is the only one of the three organized this year to provide a reasonable opportunity for Mr. Potts to participate. We are pleased to have achieved this, and we hope he qualifies.”
Dr. Larry J. Sabato
Director, Center for Politics
University of Virginia

The biggest problem with Sabato's argument that the national standard is good enough for us is presidential elections are far different than the ones we have here in the Old Dominion. It is truly overwhelming in a Presidential race to even consider getting all the candidates together simply because there are so many, some being on the ballot in just a single state. Yes the Know-Nothings (recently revived) might have something interesting to say, but if they're only on the ballot in Wyoming, they aren't really relevant to the national discussion.

I pushed debate organizers for Redpath's inclusion in 2001, and I'm pushing for Potts' inclusion this year as well.

I will say 15% is hardly a "standard" in Virginia. I note Independent (and high school government teacher) Seth Davis' inclusion last year in the televised congressional debate held in Roanoke. The only difference between then and now is that Boucher and Triplett didn't give a lick if he was included because he was truly a non-factor and not a potential spoiler. Did Davis bring interesting ideas to the table? A resounding yes. Was he ready for prime-time? A resounding no. Seth ran mostly as a lesson to his students, and should be commended for his honesty, determination and plain ol' guts. He was on the ballot and was an option for the voters. This is enough for me.

Sabato and Co. knew Kilgore would not accept a debate proposition if Potts was guaranteed a spot, so they fell back on the "standards" excuse in an attempt to get him to the podium.

What do you think will happen if Kaine or Kilgore was mysteriously caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy a week before election day? Or run over by a dump truck? Or caught getting a "massage" from Tai Collins? (sorry, had to bring that one up) How do you think the race would end up then? Don't you think it would probably be a good idea to hear what Russ has to say? Potts is a legitimate choice, and the voters in Virginia should be able to hear his ideas.

Somebody needs to invite all of the candidates to a televised debate, say "here are the rules" and not worry about whether Jerry shows up.

Gone to Potts

2005-08-15T23:53:00.000-04:00

So, I've been formulating my thoughts on this for a while.

Whether you like it or not, Russ Potts WILL be a factor in this election. He's making strides, slowly. He's not what Virginia needs in a Governor, but some of his no-nonsense ideas are.

Kilgore's lead looks pretty good to him now (despite the Mason-Dixon poll says. see posts below), but candidates in Virginia have fallen pretty quickly before. His downfall will be what I call it the Triplett effect. Kilgore cannot count on such a strong support in his own part of the state. It simply will not happen. The same federal district which he calls home has elected Rick Boucher for his 12th term (quite convincingly over NASCAR carpetbagger Kevin Triplett) will not give Kilgore the resounding margin that he thinks he'll get, the one he should win with 75% of the vote. I think it will be more like 54%. Forget the other numbers, call it a gut feeling.

That leaves Tidewater, Richmond, Roanoke, and NOVA.

Tidewater? You make the call. Depends on the military vote, which will likely be strong Kilgore, but I'm not sure they will turn out for him yet. NOVA? Will end up as strong Kaine despite the illegal immigrant debate going on at the moment. Roanoke? Strong Kilgore, of course.

Richmond is an obvious Kaine, which would put him over the top unless the following happens:

Doug Wilder endorses Russ Potts.

Would this be too much of a stretch to imagine? I think it's more likely to happen than not. While Wilder may not be horribly offended by Kaine, he's still too conservative to stomach Kaine. Kilgore is too much of a plastic candidate for his tastes. There's just so much wrong there for Doug W.

And of course, Wilder loves making a splash, being the center of attention, and being a fly in the ointment. That's what he's been for most of his life. That's exactly what he's doing now as mayor of Richmond. Can you really see him NOT doing this?

So, if this happens, who would get elected? Well, obviously moderate Republicans and Democrats would be drawn to Potts, but not in sufficent numbers for him to win. There'd still be too much emphasis on that "I" next to his name on the ballot.

I think it would result in a Kilgore win. Kaine's support would erode too much in his home base for him to overcome.

And that's exact reason why Doug won't do it. As much as he's not endeared with Kaine, he's a better substitute than Kilgore, and voters will never get past the letter by Potts' name.

While Doug does wield significant power in this election, he's not going to come out and say it.

But if I'm wrong? My only out is that Doug does what Doug wants. And that's been true for as long as he could talk.

Did too! Did not! Did too! Did not!

2005-08-10T22:41:00.000-04:00

Well, the grandstanding continues AND (in a Not Guy Incognito exclusive) there's another debate offer on the table for sure. More on that in a moment...

First of all, Kaine and Kilgore continue their jabs over who really wants to debate and who doesn't. Another email today, this one from Mo Ellithee (Kainefolk). He included the following emails traded between him and Ken Hutcheson, (Kilfolk):

"Mo—thanks for your e-mail. We have accepted the invite to debate on October 9 issued by the Center for Politics and NBC 12 and are looking forward to it. Please consider this our official notice that the 2 other proposed dates are not on the table for discussion from our perspective.
To say October 9 is unacceptable to your campaign flies in the face of the breathless calls for debates from your candidate and would appear to be nothing more than political grandstanding."

Ellithee responded:
"The Kilgore campaign, which accepted this invitation yesterday with great fanfare, demanded October 9th, and has threatened to boycott the debate if it is held on either of the other two days... Are we sensing a pattern here? It seems that every time the Kilgore campaign is faced with debate scenarios they don’t like, they threaten to take their ball and go home."

This is basically the pinnace of their lives at the moment, squabbling over minute details that none of us really care about. Hutcheson is accusing Ellithee of doing EXACTLY what he's doing right at that moment!!! What a set of cajones that guy has! He's got to carry them around in a wheelbarrow!

Now to the good part. There are talks for another debate in late September in Richmond. I hear radio and TV will likely be involved. I think it will be a town hall style appearance where the audience asks preselected questions. Perhaps it's time to plant a few bloggers in the audience!

Potts appears to be potentially left out of this one too...

As always, there are a host of issues to be debated, chewed over, and passed like a stone (just see the above emails for proof). I'll keep you updated on the details...

Somewhere, angels are singing...

2005-08-09T22:51:00.000-04:00

Well, well, well...

So Kilgore and Kaine agree to a debate, setting a strict standard for Russ Potts to be excluded unless he makes significant strides. He needs 15% in two reputable polls to be included. However, this shows a major problem with Rasmussen's methods, where surveyees were asked if they were voting for Kaine, Kilgore or "Another Candidate". Obviously the deck is stacked solidly against "Another Candidate".

For those wondering where the 15% threshold comes from, the Capital Correspondants set it way back in 2001, to coincide with the Presidential debate semi-standard. They said then that 15% is the mark where a candidate actually has a legitimate chance of winning. Obviously, Kaine and Potts supporters want the old man included.

The funny thing is, is that back in 2001 nobody was willing to lie on the tracks for Libertarian Candidate Bill Redpath so he could be included in that debate. (he WAS on the ballot as well). You can't have it both ways, folks. Either give in to ALL candidates that make the ballot, or stick with the standard. I'd prefer Potts, and any other candidate that amasses 10,000 signatures and qualifies for the ballot to be included. Even if is a candidate of the Nazi party and is polling at -1%. The polls already play too much of a part in deciding elections, they shouldn't be responsible for excluding a candidate who's name is on the ballot.

So, to announce said debate, Kilgore's camp was quick to send out an e-mail trumpeting the fact that the two sides had agreed to share a stage. Kaine's folks responded with the fact that their candidate had agreed to this debate months ago. The minor battles continue.

By the way, there's word that another debate is in the works, this one for late September, also in Richmond. Shhh! It's a secret. If they can just get Jerry to agree to that one as well.

Stuck between a Mack and a hard place...

2005-08-07T22:47:00.000-04:00

So, recently I took a brief day trip to D.C. from Richmond, and one thing struck me. Traffic can not get any worse in D.C. before people start shooting each other with much regularity.

Can anyone please explain to me what the Mixing Bowl hopes to accomplish? Isn't it possible that growth patterns have already passed it by, making it relatively obsolete? Is there really social engineering going on, where the econ development folks are talking with the traffic guys?

ON A WEEKEND, I was stuck in traffic so bad that a normally one and a half hour trip took us three and a half hours+ to complete. No reason for the backups. 10 mph for an hour straight and then 85 for another. I can only imagine what this would be during rush hour (although I have no desire to find out).

It seems to me like Washington needs an enormous expansion of the Metro lines, and some semblance of a policy on growth. The city keeps expanding dramatically with enormous housing developments, yet no clear policy on how it will impact the community.

Yes, there are a few examples of "smart growth" in D.C., but overwhelmingly we saw the exact opposite.

This is one of the many issues in Virginia that must be addressed immediately. I-81 is another crushing problem, and there has to be another option other than what Fluor and Star are proposing. How about a few intermodal terminals? The one in Roanoke, another in Wytheville, and more reliance on rail to get some of the trucks off a narrow, hilly, and twisty interstate.

I'm not even going to get into the problems Tidewater has.

These problems grow gradually, and it's too late before we realize. Perhaps this surplus next year (unless the tax package is repealed) can at least make a dent on what is already a multi-billion dollar problem, and will only get worse unless we start paying attention. It's clear now is the time we've got to do something.

Three-way in Virginia!

2005-08-03T00:02:00.000-04:00

In case you didn't know it, the three candidates for governor have agreed to a 3-way debate! And you can see the video!!! Unfortunately, they aren't sharing a stage, and they aren't really talking to each other.

The Veterans of Foreign Wars tried to stage a three-way debate, but as usual, you-know-who couldn't agree on the terms. So, they gave each guy a webcam and asked them a couple of questions. You can find it here:

http://www.manilasites.com/vfwva/
They (especially Kilgore) look and act like they're running for student council, not Governor. Kilgore and Potts could learn something about lighting, and Kaine could use a better background and warmer audio. Each candidate got as many takes as they wanted, and all of them look like they should have given it another ol' college try. I do find it funny that Kilgore was the last to turn his "homework" in to the VFW.

Apparently, Kilgore still trusts the people of Virginia to make his decisions for him, and he still does not acknowledge Potts. "My opponent"??? If you notice, he really doesn't say anything of substance... Would it kill him to say something that's not written down in his talking points? Who is really pulling the levers behind the curtain?

Kaine? Well, he's still obviously trying to ride on Warner's coattails (4 mentions), and he's using his well-rehersed lines as well... Good answer about transportation... Not a bad performance, but needed a lot more to change veteran's minds...

Potts? Best answer of the "debate". What will you do for the veterans of Virginia? "Well, Senator Russ Potts is the only veteran running for Governor." Yup, that's right, he's talking about himself in the third person (three times). The scary thing is, he's probably the best public speaker of the three. Man, if Kilgore wasn't the golden child of the GOP, this guy would have walked into the Governor's mansion if he were the GOP nominee.

It may not be what most of us want, but at least it's a start. So far, most of the voting population has had practically no accessibility to the candidates. Well, Virginia here's your introduction; go do that voodoo that you do so well.

Polls, awareness, and other nonsense...

2005-07-26T18:18:00.000-04:00

Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kilgore campaign Sunday night.

The latest polling numbers came out, showing a 1% lead for Kaine, and rising support for Potts. Botkins is putting on the best face (as he is supposed to be doing), but this is horrible news for them. Why? Mason-Dixon is what I consider to be the most respected polling company in Virginia today, and this was the largest sample of any Virginia poll so far, thus the likelihood of the most accurate results. They weighted each area properly, and Kaine is seen to be doing remarkably well in Danville/Martinsville, and about as expected elsewhere. Kilgore had to expect better numbers there, because he's running there as the true-SWVA'er. To me, that's the key region. Warner's strong showing there was the icing on the cake that propelled him to the win in '01. No wonder both sides are arguing who's more like Mark Warner!

I know Kilgore's folks say this is just another poll, and all the others have shown him with a clear lead. I say that's hooey. They're worried now, about Kaine, and Potts. 9% is too close to debate status for comfort (15% is the standard set by the Capitol Correspondents), and now he's -THIS- close to becoming a major factor in the race. I'm still guessing he's pulling significantly more from Kilgore than Kaine, but that'll be the topic of my next post.

In the other races, good news for the Dems as well. I'm surprised that Byrne is doing as well as she is, and Deeds has to be ecstatic about his support in a red state. As I said in an earlier post, all of those candidates need to do something, as the awareness numbers are alarming for all of them.

Will all of these numbers galvanize the Republicans? It should, but it should also give more confidence to the Dems about what they're doing. As others have said, thank god for these results, because now it's gotten interesting.

How far can it go?

2005-07-23T03:39:00.000-04:00

Take a look around Virginia, and what do you see? Chances are, it's not the same Virginia that many of us grew up with. We're simply being overrun by strip malls, Wal-Marts, and massive subdivisions. The amount of new construction is staggering, while aging husks of neighborhoods, factories, and stores sit rotting.

Richmonders remember when Short Pump was a drive through the country. Roanokers remember when Botetourt was beautiful. NOVA residents remember when traffic actually moved on I-66. Even Harrisonburg and Staunton have an unbelievable amount of sprawl. It is truly staggering how quickly all of this has happened. 15 years ago, all of these localities looked very different before this spurt of unplanned growth.

1200 home developments of gaudy and cheaply constructed homes are popping up everywhere, as rising assessments force farmers to sell their property that's been held by their family for decades.

We need to do something. We need a comprehensive state-wide plan to abate this problem. We need leaders to step up and say there's a problem. We need a way for cities to be able to compete with the counties, as more people are drawn out by the lure of lower property taxes and shiny new 2200 sqaure foot houses. We need more incentives for companies to actually take exisiting properties and mold them to their use instead of eating away at the core of Virginia's appeal.

All of this can be done. More conservation easements, more money flowing into the right kind of economic development, and more attention by the residents to their locally-owned establishments.

We need our elected leaders from Boards of Supervisors, Town Councils, the General Assembly and even the Governor's mansion to address this problem now, before it's too late.

We're losing our identity as a state. Once it's gone, it can never be resurrected.

Well, well, well...

2005-07-22T02:36:00.000-04:00

So, earlier this week, our esteemed former Attorney General's staff put out an email quoting Kaine talking about a possible reversal of Roe v. Wade, and how he would react to it as Governor. Kaine responded by stating that it was hypothetical, and pure speculation. The unwritten message of the missive was to show what a waffler Kaine was, and how he could not be trusted to make a decision (as well as underscore his fundamental opposition to abortion to his pro-choice Democratic base). In theory, a score for Kilgore.

Well, after John G. Roberts was nominated to succeed O'Connor, Kilgore was asked a very similar question. Can you guess his response? Yup, he waffled. Many came away with the impression that he was basically unready for the question, and did not have a prepared answer. After that, his handlers apparently became quite agitated.

Please, folks. If you challenge your opponent on a point, have a response of your own ready! You're running for GOVERNOR. Amateur moves like this one paint you in a very bad light.

To me, a move like this points to too much aggression on the Kilgore camp, and too little defensive planning. For Kaine, I see too little aggression and too much defensive play. You probably saw this in the "debate". Both campaigns need to find the happy balance. The first that does will reap the benefits.

Looking for a Lieutenant Governor...

2005-07-20T20:27:00.000-04:00

Well, it's been more than a month since the primaries, and the candidates for Lieutenant Governor have been pretty much missing.

While we've seen a steady stream of emails, press releases, and crapmails from the gubernatorial candidates, we've seen almost nothing from the Lt. Gov's. In fact, the email from Byrne today was the first missive I can recall since June 15th. For Bolling, there's been maybe two.

What are they doing out there? I understand the demands of a campaign, but surely there's enough time to pound on the keyboard and send SOMETHING out.

I know it's difficult to raise attention to one of the lower races (especially one that has so little appeal as this one), but that shouldn't stop you from trying.

Candidates: DO SOMETHING!

Political Posturing

2005-07-19T23:14:00.000-04:00

Today, both Kaine and Kilgore sent out releases stating how awful the BRAC vote to eliminate
Oceana was and how they would work to keep this political pork open forever. In fact, emails from Kaine, Kilgore, Allen and Warner practically looked like they were written by the same person. I know there's the political interest in something like this, but does anyone actually think the media will do anything but send their comments in the "circular file"? For shame anyone who wasted valuable ink or time on these canned comments.

I know Oceana is a vital part of Virgina Beach's economy, and it would be a great loss for that area, but is it redundant with the proximity other bases? That's exactly the issue BRAC is looking at. Unfortunately, politicians get in the way, and all of BRAC's work will be swallowed up by the political pork. Everytime base realignment comes around all politicos' sphincters tighten, but this should not be a political issue, but a military one.

A matter of choice? & Debate part Deux...

2005-07-18T23:34:00.000-04:00

Alrighty, here's the issue du jour: Kaine's stance on abortion. Hot topic, with the Supreme Court vacancy and all, but it seems that Kilgore's folks are throwing stones here...

Here's the jist of a Kilgore press release today: Kaine be pro-life, but waffles to a pseudo pro-choice. Or at its distilled form that's given to us; Kaine bad, Kilgore good. It seems like a decent man would applaud someone who shares his beliefs on such a controversial subject. But, alas...

I give it a big, fat "whatever".

Kilgore Deputy Press Secretary Tucker Martin, you need some new material, and a new name (does anybody else have the image of a very pale guy wearing a bow tie, hush puppies and no socks?). Things aren't necessarily that simple. I'm not buying it because we've all seen this time and time again.

That's what's so frustrating about this campaign. We're seeing the EXACT same thing over and over, without the slight chance of negativity or doubt. Both campaigns actually think we're that stupid, and frankly, it's gotten very old.

And that's the frustration with the debate as well. Instead of involving in a serious discussion on the issues, both candidates were so coached that it didn't really matter what question was asked, they already had their answer. Here's a sample:

Q: "Mr. Candidate, what color is the sky?"

A: "Well, my opponant will tell you green, maroon, crimson or lavender, however he sees it at that time. I'll tell you the sky is the color of liberty we see on the American flag. I've always been a patriotic American. I was working to protect the people of Virginia while my opponant was (pick one) {dodging the draft, smoking pot, flip-flopping, burning flags, stealing kids' lunch money, molesting cattle}. That's why you should vote for me, because I'll tell it to you straight. And that's the straight facts, no ifs, ands, or buts."

We have some very complex issues here in Virginia, and none of them can be solved by a simple yes or no answer. Reality is like a rainbow, folks, there's a whole lot of color out there to be had. There are a whole lot more choices than just white or just black.

Master Debater?

2005-07-17T00:13:00.000-04:00

If a debate falls in the forest and nobody's around to hear, does it really make any noise in the polls?

Well, debate #1 is done with, and some accounts have Kilgore winning.

Me? I think it's more a case of diminished expectations. In the previous meeting between the two Kilgore lost his cool ("I have no duty to you, Mr. Lieutenant Governor... on this issue..."), and all the GOP wanted from him was to be mean and not make an ass out of himself. Well, he didn't drool on the podium, so it's all good, and he remembered his lines (hope he can remember more if he's elected). I just have a hard time believing that not being as bad as expected is actually winning.

Do you get the feeling he's actually an effeminate George Allen wearing a mask? Liberace had a more masculine speaking voice than this guy. Close your eyes and listen to Michael Waltrip and Kilgore back to back. Has anyone ever seen them together? Their accents are a strange mix of Grenwich Village and Wise County. Very weird.

Well, how did the debate fall for Kaine? He played good cop this time, pushing substance more than style. Not exciting, but there are times that's appropriate. I still think he'll wipe the floor with Kilgore if there's a televised debate. But Mark Warner-lite still has to be more on the offensive (in debates and in the campaign). Maybe it's time Mudcat penned another song, although bluegrass is SO 2001. Is their campaign really this adrift?

The real winner in the debate? It's certainly not the voters, so it's gotta be Potts. I think he gets more publicity and sympathy by not being in it than by participating. I think he would have come off looking very old against those other two if he'd been in it. I must admit it though, it would have been a lot of fun to see some of his folksy barbs come out. Maybe next time (who am I kidding?)

More soon, the back and forth email "press releases" (really just the same old lines traded back and forth) that were so common just two months ago have slowed down to a complete crawl. I just think the apathy that the voters are feeling has crept into the campaigns. But hey, it's just July!

Funny of the day...

2005-07-15T19:20:00.000-04:00

The WV Democrats today put out an amusing little press release, accusing Kilgore of BREAKING THE LAW! Oh my, how juicy!!! Well, not really.

Perhaps to feign enthusiasm for the debate at the Greenbrier, apparently Kilgore's folks plopped hundreds of campaign signs around White Sulfur Springs, which is against the law. Also, they point out that there aren't too many voters in WV, something I've been saying for months.

Really worth $.25 a sign to have them up for a few hours?

So this is how they've spent so much, so fast.

By the way, I know it's July, but when is someone going to come up with a publicity stunt or marketing campaign that actually works?

Here we go...

2005-07-15T02:51:00.000-04:00

First of all, it's "Not Guy Incognito" for a reason. I'm a nobody. You won't guess who I am, and I prefer it that way. I'm not completely sure who I'm going to vote for, but I do know who will NOT get my vote.

Yeah, I'm a little late in the game, but it's JULY people. Your average voter has forgotten that there's even an election this year, much less taken the time to actually research them.

I plan to take a look at what I think's going on with the 2005 VA Gubernatorial Election (and what I hear), particularly how each candidate's image is playing in the media, the ins and outs of one of two governor's races this year.

There ya go, hope you enjoy. Try not to get too pissed off. Remember it's politics, and the way politics has gone today, it's become a monopoly game where Boardwalk counts as much as Baltic, and we're the poor that occasionally gets $10 on chance.

Following the other nots, here we go.

The state of the state...

2005-07-15T00:08:00.000-04:00

Just what in the hell is happening in Virginia?

Kilgore has some sort of lead (still waiting to see Mason-Dixon) over Kaine, and Potts is drowning in the independent swamp. Of course, this isn't too much of a surprise.

What I am surprised about is the ridiculous amounts of money that both candidates have spent, with practically nothing to show for it. The campaign commercials have been horrible so far (despite the slick agencies brought in to produce them), and both major candidates have been completely uninspired. Where do we go from here? Probably down.

More to come.