Tuesday, July 26, 2005
Polls, awareness, and other nonsense...
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kilgore campaign Sunday night.
The latest polling numbers came out, showing a 1% lead for Kaine, and rising support for Potts. Botkins is putting on the best face (as he is supposed to be doing), but this is horrible news for them. Why? Mason-Dixon is what I consider to be the most respected polling company in Virginia today, and this was the largest sample of any Virginia poll so far, thus the likelihood of the most accurate results. They weighted each area properly, and Kaine is seen to be doing remarkably well in Danville/Martinsville, and about as expected elsewhere. Kilgore had to expect better numbers there, because he's running there as the true-SWVA'er. To me, that's the key region. Warner's strong showing there was the icing on the cake that propelled him to the win in '01. No wonder both sides are arguing who's more like Mark Warner!
I know Kilgore's folks say this is just another poll, and all the others have shown him with a clear lead. I say that's hooey. They're worried now, about Kaine, and Potts. 9% is too close to debate status for comfort (15% is the standard set by the Capitol Correspondents), and now he's -THIS- close to becoming a major factor in the race. I'm still guessing he's pulling significantly more from Kilgore than Kaine, but that'll be the topic of my next post.
In the other races, good news for the Dems as well. I'm surprised that Byrne is doing as well as she is, and Deeds has to be ecstatic about his support in a red state. As I said in an earlier post, all of those candidates need to do something, as the awareness numbers are alarming for all of them.
Will all of these numbers galvanize the Republicans? It should, but it should also give more confidence to the Dems about what they're doing. As others have said, thank god for these results, because now it's gotten interesting.
The latest polling numbers came out, showing a 1% lead for Kaine, and rising support for Potts. Botkins is putting on the best face (as he is supposed to be doing), but this is horrible news for them. Why? Mason-Dixon is what I consider to be the most respected polling company in Virginia today, and this was the largest sample of any Virginia poll so far, thus the likelihood of the most accurate results. They weighted each area properly, and Kaine is seen to be doing remarkably well in Danville/Martinsville, and about as expected elsewhere. Kilgore had to expect better numbers there, because he's running there as the true-SWVA'er. To me, that's the key region. Warner's strong showing there was the icing on the cake that propelled him to the win in '01. No wonder both sides are arguing who's more like Mark Warner!
I know Kilgore's folks say this is just another poll, and all the others have shown him with a clear lead. I say that's hooey. They're worried now, about Kaine, and Potts. 9% is too close to debate status for comfort (15% is the standard set by the Capitol Correspondents), and now he's -THIS- close to becoming a major factor in the race. I'm still guessing he's pulling significantly more from Kilgore than Kaine, but that'll be the topic of my next post.
In the other races, good news for the Dems as well. I'm surprised that Byrne is doing as well as she is, and Deeds has to be ecstatic about his support in a red state. As I said in an earlier post, all of those candidates need to do something, as the awareness numbers are alarming for all of them.
Will all of these numbers galvanize the Republicans? It should, but it should also give more confidence to the Dems about what they're doing. As others have said, thank god for these results, because now it's gotten interesting.
