Tuesday, July 26, 2005
Polls, awareness, and other nonsense...
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kilgore campaign Sunday night.
The latest polling numbers came out, showing a 1% lead for Kaine, and rising support for Potts. Botkins is putting on the best face (as he is supposed to be doing), but this is horrible news for them. Why? Mason-Dixon is what I consider to be the most respected polling company in Virginia today, and this was the largest sample of any Virginia poll so far, thus the likelihood of the most accurate results. They weighted each area properly, and Kaine is seen to be doing remarkably well in Danville/Martinsville, and about as expected elsewhere. Kilgore had to expect better numbers there, because he's running there as the true-SWVA'er. To me, that's the key region. Warner's strong showing there was the icing on the cake that propelled him to the win in '01. No wonder both sides are arguing who's more like Mark Warner!
I know Kilgore's folks say this is just another poll, and all the others have shown him with a clear lead. I say that's hooey. They're worried now, about Kaine, and Potts. 9% is too close to debate status for comfort (15% is the standard set by the Capitol Correspondents), and now he's -THIS- close to becoming a major factor in the race. I'm still guessing he's pulling significantly more from Kilgore than Kaine, but that'll be the topic of my next post.
In the other races, good news for the Dems as well. I'm surprised that Byrne is doing as well as she is, and Deeds has to be ecstatic about his support in a red state. As I said in an earlier post, all of those candidates need to do something, as the awareness numbers are alarming for all of them.
Will all of these numbers galvanize the Republicans? It should, but it should also give more confidence to the Dems about what they're doing. As others have said, thank god for these results, because now it's gotten interesting.
The latest polling numbers came out, showing a 1% lead for Kaine, and rising support for Potts. Botkins is putting on the best face (as he is supposed to be doing), but this is horrible news for them. Why? Mason-Dixon is what I consider to be the most respected polling company in Virginia today, and this was the largest sample of any Virginia poll so far, thus the likelihood of the most accurate results. They weighted each area properly, and Kaine is seen to be doing remarkably well in Danville/Martinsville, and about as expected elsewhere. Kilgore had to expect better numbers there, because he's running there as the true-SWVA'er. To me, that's the key region. Warner's strong showing there was the icing on the cake that propelled him to the win in '01. No wonder both sides are arguing who's more like Mark Warner!
I know Kilgore's folks say this is just another poll, and all the others have shown him with a clear lead. I say that's hooey. They're worried now, about Kaine, and Potts. 9% is too close to debate status for comfort (15% is the standard set by the Capitol Correspondents), and now he's -THIS- close to becoming a major factor in the race. I'm still guessing he's pulling significantly more from Kilgore than Kaine, but that'll be the topic of my next post.
In the other races, good news for the Dems as well. I'm surprised that Byrne is doing as well as she is, and Deeds has to be ecstatic about his support in a red state. As I said in an earlier post, all of those candidates need to do something, as the awareness numbers are alarming for all of them.
Will all of these numbers galvanize the Republicans? It should, but it should also give more confidence to the Dems about what they're doing. As others have said, thank god for these results, because now it's gotten interesting.
Saturday, July 23, 2005
How far can it go?
Take a look around Virginia, and what do you see? Chances are, it's not the same Virginia that many of us grew up with. We're simply being overrun by strip malls, Wal-Marts, and massive subdivisions. The amount of new construction is staggering, while aging husks of neighborhoods, factories, and stores sit rotting.
Richmonders remember when Short Pump was a drive through the country. Roanokers remember when Botetourt was beautiful. NOVA residents remember when traffic actually moved on I-66. Even Harrisonburg and Staunton have an unbelievable amount of sprawl. It is truly staggering how quickly all of this has happened. 15 years ago, all of these localities looked very different before this spurt of unplanned growth.
1200 home developments of gaudy and cheaply constructed homes are popping up everywhere, as rising assessments force farmers to sell their property that's been held by their family for decades.
We need to do something. We need a comprehensive state-wide plan to abate this problem. We need leaders to step up and say there's a problem. We need a way for cities to be able to compete with the counties, as more people are drawn out by the lure of lower property taxes and shiny new 2200 sqaure foot houses. We need more incentives for companies to actually take exisiting properties and mold them to their use instead of eating away at the core of Virginia's appeal.
All of this can be done. More conservation easements, more money flowing into the right kind of economic development, and more attention by the residents to their locally-owned establishments.
We need our elected leaders from Boards of Supervisors, Town Councils, the General Assembly and even the Governor's mansion to address this problem now, before it's too late.
We're losing our identity as a state. Once it's gone, it can never be resurrected.
Richmonders remember when Short Pump was a drive through the country. Roanokers remember when Botetourt was beautiful. NOVA residents remember when traffic actually moved on I-66. Even Harrisonburg and Staunton have an unbelievable amount of sprawl. It is truly staggering how quickly all of this has happened. 15 years ago, all of these localities looked very different before this spurt of unplanned growth.
1200 home developments of gaudy and cheaply constructed homes are popping up everywhere, as rising assessments force farmers to sell their property that's been held by their family for decades.
We need to do something. We need a comprehensive state-wide plan to abate this problem. We need leaders to step up and say there's a problem. We need a way for cities to be able to compete with the counties, as more people are drawn out by the lure of lower property taxes and shiny new 2200 sqaure foot houses. We need more incentives for companies to actually take exisiting properties and mold them to their use instead of eating away at the core of Virginia's appeal.
All of this can be done. More conservation easements, more money flowing into the right kind of economic development, and more attention by the residents to their locally-owned establishments.
We need our elected leaders from Boards of Supervisors, Town Councils, the General Assembly and even the Governor's mansion to address this problem now, before it's too late.
We're losing our identity as a state. Once it's gone, it can never be resurrected.
Friday, July 22, 2005
Well, well, well...
So, earlier this week, our esteemed former Attorney General's staff put out an email quoting Kaine talking about a possible reversal of Roe v. Wade, and how he would react to it as Governor. Kaine responded by stating that it was hypothetical, and pure speculation. The unwritten message of the missive was to show what a waffler Kaine was, and how he could not be trusted to make a decision (as well as underscore his fundamental opposition to abortion to his pro-choice Democratic base). In theory, a score for Kilgore.
Well, after John G. Roberts was nominated to succeed O'Connor, Kilgore was asked a very similar question. Can you guess his response? Yup, he waffled. Many came away with the impression that he was basically unready for the question, and did not have a prepared answer. After that, his handlers apparently became quite agitated.
Please, folks. If you challenge your opponent on a point, have a response of your own ready! You're running for GOVERNOR. Amateur moves like this one paint you in a very bad light.
To me, a move like this points to too much aggression on the Kilgore camp, and too little defensive planning. For Kaine, I see too little aggression and too much defensive play. You probably saw this in the "debate". Both campaigns need to find the happy balance. The first that does will reap the benefits.
Well, after John G. Roberts was nominated to succeed O'Connor, Kilgore was asked a very similar question. Can you guess his response? Yup, he waffled. Many came away with the impression that he was basically unready for the question, and did not have a prepared answer. After that, his handlers apparently became quite agitated.
Please, folks. If you challenge your opponent on a point, have a response of your own ready! You're running for GOVERNOR. Amateur moves like this one paint you in a very bad light.
To me, a move like this points to too much aggression on the Kilgore camp, and too little defensive planning. For Kaine, I see too little aggression and too much defensive play. You probably saw this in the "debate". Both campaigns need to find the happy balance. The first that does will reap the benefits.
Wednesday, July 20, 2005
Looking for a Lieutenant Governor...
Well, it's been more than a month since the primaries, and the candidates for Lieutenant Governor have been pretty much missing.
While we've seen a steady stream of emails, press releases, and crapmails from the gubernatorial candidates, we've seen almost nothing from the Lt. Gov's. In fact, the email from Byrne today was the first missive I can recall since June 15th. For Bolling, there's been maybe two.
What are they doing out there? I understand the demands of a campaign, but surely there's enough time to pound on the keyboard and send SOMETHING out.
I know it's difficult to raise attention to one of the lower races (especially one that has so little appeal as this one), but that shouldn't stop you from trying.
Candidates: DO SOMETHING!
While we've seen a steady stream of emails, press releases, and crapmails from the gubernatorial candidates, we've seen almost nothing from the Lt. Gov's. In fact, the email from Byrne today was the first missive I can recall since June 15th. For Bolling, there's been maybe two.
What are they doing out there? I understand the demands of a campaign, but surely there's enough time to pound on the keyboard and send SOMETHING out.
I know it's difficult to raise attention to one of the lower races (especially one that has so little appeal as this one), but that shouldn't stop you from trying.
Candidates: DO SOMETHING!
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
Political Posturing
Today, both Kaine and Kilgore sent out releases stating how awful the BRAC vote to eliminate
Oceana was and how they would work to keep this political pork open forever. In fact, emails from Kaine, Kilgore, Allen and Warner practically looked like they were written by the same person. I know there's the political interest in something like this, but does anyone actually think the media will do anything but send their comments in the "circular file"? For shame anyone who wasted valuable ink or time on these canned comments.
I know Oceana is a vital part of Virgina Beach's economy, and it would be a great loss for that area, but is it redundant with the proximity other bases? That's exactly the issue BRAC is looking at. Unfortunately, politicians get in the way, and all of BRAC's work will be swallowed up by the political pork. Everytime base realignment comes around all politicos' sphincters tighten, but this should not be a political issue, but a military one.
Oceana was and how they would work to keep this political pork open forever. In fact, emails from Kaine, Kilgore, Allen and Warner practically looked like they were written by the same person. I know there's the political interest in something like this, but does anyone actually think the media will do anything but send their comments in the "circular file"? For shame anyone who wasted valuable ink or time on these canned comments.
I know Oceana is a vital part of Virgina Beach's economy, and it would be a great loss for that area, but is it redundant with the proximity other bases? That's exactly the issue BRAC is looking at. Unfortunately, politicians get in the way, and all of BRAC's work will be swallowed up by the political pork. Everytime base realignment comes around all politicos' sphincters tighten, but this should not be a political issue, but a military one.
Monday, July 18, 2005
A matter of choice? & Debate part Deux...
Alrighty, here's the issue du jour: Kaine's stance on abortion. Hot topic, with the Supreme Court vacancy and all, but it seems that Kilgore's folks are throwing stones here...
Here's the jist of a Kilgore press release today: Kaine be pro-life, but waffles to a pseudo pro-choice. Or at its distilled form that's given to us; Kaine bad, Kilgore good. It seems like a decent man would applaud someone who shares his beliefs on such a controversial subject. But, alas...
I give it a big, fat "whatever".
Kilgore Deputy Press Secretary Tucker Martin, you need some new material, and a new name (does anybody else have the image of a very pale guy wearing a bow tie, hush puppies and no socks?). Things aren't necessarily that simple. I'm not buying it because we've all seen this time and time again.
That's what's so frustrating about this campaign. We're seeing the EXACT same thing over and over, without the slight chance of negativity or doubt. Both campaigns actually think we're that stupid, and frankly, it's gotten very old.
And that's the frustration with the debate as well. Instead of involving in a serious discussion on the issues, both candidates were so coached that it didn't really matter what question was asked, they already had their answer. Here's a sample:
Q: "Mr. Candidate, what color is the sky?"
A: "Well, my opponant will tell you green, maroon, crimson or lavender, however he sees it at that time. I'll tell you the sky is the color of liberty we see on the American flag. I've always been a patriotic American. I was working to protect the people of Virginia while my opponant was (pick one) {dodging the draft, smoking pot, flip-flopping, burning flags, stealing kids' lunch money, molesting cattle}. That's why you should vote for me, because I'll tell it to you straight. And that's the straight facts, no ifs, ands, or buts."
We have some very complex issues here in Virginia, and none of them can be solved by a simple yes or no answer. Reality is like a rainbow, folks, there's a whole lot of color out there to be had. There are a whole lot more choices than just white or just black.
Here's the jist of a Kilgore press release today: Kaine be pro-life, but waffles to a pseudo pro-choice. Or at its distilled form that's given to us; Kaine bad, Kilgore good. It seems like a decent man would applaud someone who shares his beliefs on such a controversial subject. But, alas...
I give it a big, fat "whatever".
Kilgore Deputy Press Secretary Tucker Martin, you need some new material, and a new name (does anybody else have the image of a very pale guy wearing a bow tie, hush puppies and no socks?). Things aren't necessarily that simple. I'm not buying it because we've all seen this time and time again.
That's what's so frustrating about this campaign. We're seeing the EXACT same thing over and over, without the slight chance of negativity or doubt. Both campaigns actually think we're that stupid, and frankly, it's gotten very old.
And that's the frustration with the debate as well. Instead of involving in a serious discussion on the issues, both candidates were so coached that it didn't really matter what question was asked, they already had their answer. Here's a sample:
Q: "Mr. Candidate, what color is the sky?"
A: "Well, my opponant will tell you green, maroon, crimson or lavender, however he sees it at that time. I'll tell you the sky is the color of liberty we see on the American flag. I've always been a patriotic American. I was working to protect the people of Virginia while my opponant was (pick one) {dodging the draft, smoking pot, flip-flopping, burning flags, stealing kids' lunch money, molesting cattle}. That's why you should vote for me, because I'll tell it to you straight. And that's the straight facts, no ifs, ands, or buts."
We have some very complex issues here in Virginia, and none of them can be solved by a simple yes or no answer. Reality is like a rainbow, folks, there's a whole lot of color out there to be had. There are a whole lot more choices than just white or just black.
Sunday, July 17, 2005
Master Debater?
If a debate falls in the forest and nobody's around to hear, does it really make any noise in the polls?
Well, debate #1 is done with, and some accounts have Kilgore winning.
Me? I think it's more a case of diminished expectations. In the previous meeting between the two Kilgore lost his cool ("I have no duty to you, Mr. Lieutenant Governor... on this issue..."), and all the GOP wanted from him was to be mean and not make an ass out of himself. Well, he didn't drool on the podium, so it's all good, and he remembered his lines (hope he can remember more if he's elected). I just have a hard time believing that not being as bad as expected is actually winning.
Do you get the feeling he's actually an effeminate George Allen wearing a mask? Liberace had a more masculine speaking voice than this guy. Close your eyes and listen to Michael Waltrip and Kilgore back to back. Has anyone ever seen them together? Their accents are a strange mix of Grenwich Village and Wise County. Very weird.
Well, how did the debate fall for Kaine? He played good cop this time, pushing substance more than style. Not exciting, but there are times that's appropriate. I still think he'll wipe the floor with Kilgore if there's a televised debate. But Mark Warner-lite still has to be more on the offensive (in debates and in the campaign). Maybe it's time Mudcat penned another song, although bluegrass is SO 2001. Is their campaign really this adrift?
The real winner in the debate? It's certainly not the voters, so it's gotta be Potts. I think he gets more publicity and sympathy by not being in it than by participating. I think he would have come off looking very old against those other two if he'd been in it. I must admit it though, it would have been a lot of fun to see some of his folksy barbs come out. Maybe next time (who am I kidding?)
More soon, the back and forth email "press releases" (really just the same old lines traded back and forth) that were so common just two months ago have slowed down to a complete crawl. I just think the apathy that the voters are feeling has crept into the campaigns. But hey, it's just July!
Well, debate #1 is done with, and some accounts have Kilgore winning.
Me? I think it's more a case of diminished expectations. In the previous meeting between the two Kilgore lost his cool ("I have no duty to you, Mr. Lieutenant Governor... on this issue..."), and all the GOP wanted from him was to be mean and not make an ass out of himself. Well, he didn't drool on the podium, so it's all good, and he remembered his lines (hope he can remember more if he's elected). I just have a hard time believing that not being as bad as expected is actually winning.
Do you get the feeling he's actually an effeminate George Allen wearing a mask? Liberace had a more masculine speaking voice than this guy. Close your eyes and listen to Michael Waltrip and Kilgore back to back. Has anyone ever seen them together? Their accents are a strange mix of Grenwich Village and Wise County. Very weird.
Well, how did the debate fall for Kaine? He played good cop this time, pushing substance more than style. Not exciting, but there are times that's appropriate. I still think he'll wipe the floor with Kilgore if there's a televised debate. But Mark Warner-lite still has to be more on the offensive (in debates and in the campaign). Maybe it's time Mudcat penned another song, although bluegrass is SO 2001. Is their campaign really this adrift?
The real winner in the debate? It's certainly not the voters, so it's gotta be Potts. I think he gets more publicity and sympathy by not being in it than by participating. I think he would have come off looking very old against those other two if he'd been in it. I must admit it though, it would have been a lot of fun to see some of his folksy barbs come out. Maybe next time (who am I kidding?)
More soon, the back and forth email "press releases" (really just the same old lines traded back and forth) that were so common just two months ago have slowed down to a complete crawl. I just think the apathy that the voters are feeling has crept into the campaigns. But hey, it's just July!
Friday, July 15, 2005
Funny of the day...
The WV Democrats today put out an amusing little press release, accusing Kilgore of BREAKING THE LAW! Oh my, how juicy!!! Well, not really.
Perhaps to feign enthusiasm for the debate at the Greenbrier, apparently Kilgore's folks plopped hundreds of campaign signs around White Sulfur Springs, which is against the law. Also, they point out that there aren't too many voters in WV, something I've been saying for months.
Really worth $.25 a sign to have them up for a few hours?
So this is how they've spent so much, so fast.
By the way, I know it's July, but when is someone going to come up with a publicity stunt or marketing campaign that actually works?
Perhaps to feign enthusiasm for the debate at the Greenbrier, apparently Kilgore's folks plopped hundreds of campaign signs around White Sulfur Springs, which is against the law. Also, they point out that there aren't too many voters in WV, something I've been saying for months.
Really worth $.25 a sign to have them up for a few hours?
So this is how they've spent so much, so fast.
By the way, I know it's July, but when is someone going to come up with a publicity stunt or marketing campaign that actually works?
Here we go...
First of all, it's "Not Guy Incognito" for a reason. I'm a nobody. You won't guess who I am, and I prefer it that way. I'm not completely sure who I'm going to vote for, but I do know who will NOT get my vote.
Yeah, I'm a little late in the game, but it's JULY people. Your average voter has forgotten that there's even an election this year, much less taken the time to actually research them.
I plan to take a look at what I think's going on with the 2005 VA Gubernatorial Election (and what I hear), particularly how each candidate's image is playing in the media, the ins and outs of one of two governor's races this year.
There ya go, hope you enjoy. Try not to get too pissed off. Remember it's politics, and the way politics has gone today, it's become a monopoly game where Boardwalk counts as much as Baltic, and we're the poor that occasionally gets $10 on chance.
Following the other nots, here we go.
Yeah, I'm a little late in the game, but it's JULY people. Your average voter has forgotten that there's even an election this year, much less taken the time to actually research them.
I plan to take a look at what I think's going on with the 2005 VA Gubernatorial Election (and what I hear), particularly how each candidate's image is playing in the media, the ins and outs of one of two governor's races this year.
There ya go, hope you enjoy. Try not to get too pissed off. Remember it's politics, and the way politics has gone today, it's become a monopoly game where Boardwalk counts as much as Baltic, and we're the poor that occasionally gets $10 on chance.
Following the other nots, here we go.
The state of the state...
Just what in the hell is happening in Virginia?
Kilgore has some sort of lead (still waiting to see Mason-Dixon) over Kaine, and Potts is drowning in the independent swamp. Of course, this isn't too much of a surprise.
What I am surprised about is the ridiculous amounts of money that both candidates have spent, with practically nothing to show for it. The campaign commercials have been horrible so far (despite the slick agencies brought in to produce them), and both major candidates have been completely uninspired. Where do we go from here? Probably down.
More to come.
Kilgore has some sort of lead (still waiting to see Mason-Dixon) over Kaine, and Potts is drowning in the independent swamp. Of course, this isn't too much of a surprise.
What I am surprised about is the ridiculous amounts of money that both candidates have spent, with practically nothing to show for it. The campaign commercials have been horrible so far (despite the slick agencies brought in to produce them), and both major candidates have been completely uninspired. Where do we go from here? Probably down.
More to come.
