Tuesday, August 23, 2005

At the candidates debate...

Well, Russ Potts will be in a gubernatorial debate after all! Yup, at the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce!

Won't it be so much fun to see all three candidates debate on the same day? It will be a picture of freedom, and will inspire confidence in the American electoral process.

WELL, almost. While it is true that all three will be debating, it just won't be AT THE SAME TIME. That's right, we get the Kaine/Kilgore scheduled debate, and then Kaine will be pulling double duty by debating just Potts afterwards.

Both Kaine and Potts sent out press releases trumpeting this second debate. Especially Kaine, who had a nice little jab at Kilgore by saying he was going to debate "both of my Republican opponents." Quite obviously he's trying to remind the voters of Virginia that Potts is indeed a member of the GOP, something Kilgore has not acknowledged at all. Potts had a nice little jab at Kilgore's refusal to include him as well.

What is this doing? Just getting more play for Potts. More sympathy, and more credibility. It almost makes you wonder about Potts' true motivation in this role. Does this go deeper than the Republican divide over tax reform (hikes)? Could it be that a deep divide between fiscal conservatives and the ones trying to make a radical social shift to the far right actually exists?

Tim Kaine has little to fear by bringing Potts in, it seems. He clearly thinks that Potts will mostly pull votes from Kilgore, and he wants Russ to have as much airtime as possible since he's not too much of a threat to his own candidacy.

Ol' Russ has stated that if he's polling at around 27% by the end of September he has an excellent chance of winning this race. Optimistic, but credible. However, if he's still hovering around 9-12% could he fold up his tent and throw his support behind Kaine? His rhetoric against his fellow Republican has filled with vitriol throughout this race it's clear he does not think much of Kilgore. But as you can read below, Dougie Wilder could throw a major monkey wrench into the works (by the way, he's meeting with Potts on Wednesday).

Weirder things have happened in Virginia politics. And my gut tells me that there's going to be more twists in this race before election day than a Patricia Cornwell novel. Now's when it starts to get fun.

Saturday, August 20, 2005

More debate on the debate, and this time I'm right!

There has been much ado on the debate on the debate lately. Larry Sabato penned this response to several editorials imploring the debate commission (and Jerry Kilgore) to include Independent Russ Potts:

“To the Editor: “Regarding your editorial on independent gubernatorial candidate H. Russell Potts Jr. ("A Radical in Virginia"), and his exclusion from candidate debates, you make a serious error. The editorial reads: "That arbitrary condition [the 15 percent rule for inclusion] was set by the Kilgore campaign and agreed to by the debate's sponsor, the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia." Nothing could be further from the truth.
“First, the 15 percent rule is certainly not arbitrary. It is the established standard at the national level, via the Commission on Presidential Debates, and it is the established standard in Virginia. Just to cite one example, when we had our 2001 gubernatorial TV debate (sponsored by the Center) in October, we used the very same 15 percent standard, which resulted in the exclusion of Libertarian William Redpath, who had filed the necessary signatures and secured a place on the November ballot. When we consulted with legal experts before making our debate proposal this year, the one thing they insisted upon was that we should be consistent and not arbitrary, and therefore should maintain the same standard used for years and years in considering Mr. Potts' independent candidacy. That is precisely what we did, and so your word "arbitrary" should in fact have read "consistent."
“Second, the Center, not the Kilgore campaign as your editorial states, proposed the 15 percent rule in our original proposal to the campaigns in May. The Kilgore campaign immediately balked. We could have had a debate agreement in May had we caved in, but instead we held firm for about four months, insisting that the debate needed to provide a reasonable, consistent way for Potts to qualify. At several points, it appeared that our debate had been shelved permanently because we would not budge on that principle. Finally, under pressure to agree to a statewide TV debate, the Kilgore campaign relented a couple of weeks ago. Our position never changed; the Kilgore camp's position changed.
“Our debate is the only one of the three organized this year to provide a reasonable opportunity for Mr. Potts to participate. We are pleased to have achieved this, and we hope he qualifies.”
Dr. Larry J. Sabato
Director, Center for Politics
University of Virginia

The biggest problem with Sabato's argument that the national standard is good enough for us is presidential elections are far different than the ones we have here in the Old Dominion. It is truly overwhelming in a Presidential race to even consider getting all the candidates together simply because there are so many, some being on the ballot in just a single state. Yes the Know-Nothings (recently revived) might have something interesting to say, but if they're only on the ballot in Wyoming, they aren't really relevant to the national discussion.

I pushed debate organizers for Redpath's inclusion in 2001, and I'm pushing for Potts' inclusion this year as well.

I will say 15% is hardly a "standard" in Virginia. I note Independent (and high school government teacher) Seth Davis' inclusion last year in the televised congressional debate held in Roanoke. The only difference between then and now is that Boucher and Triplett didn't give a lick if he was included because he was truly a non-factor and not a potential spoiler. Did Davis bring interesting ideas to the table? A resounding yes. Was he ready for prime-time? A resounding no. Seth ran mostly as a lesson to his students, and should be commended for his honesty, determination and plain ol' guts. He was on the ballot and was an option for the voters. This is enough for me.

Sabato and Co. knew Kilgore would not accept a debate proposition if Potts was guaranteed a spot, so they fell back on the "standards" excuse in an attempt to get him to the podium.

What do you think will happen if Kaine or Kilgore was mysteriously caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy a week before election day? Or run over by a dump truck? Or caught getting a "massage" from Tai Collins? (sorry, had to bring that one up) How do you think the race would end up then? Don't you think it would probably be a good idea to hear what Russ has to say? Potts is a legitimate choice, and the voters in Virginia should be able to hear his ideas.

Somebody needs to invite all of the candidates to a televised debate, say "here are the rules" and not worry about whether Jerry shows up.

Monday, August 15, 2005

Gone to Potts

So, I've been formulating my thoughts on this for a while.

Whether you like it or not, Russ Potts WILL be a factor in this election. He's making strides, slowly. He's not what Virginia needs in a Governor, but some of his no-nonsense ideas are.

Kilgore's lead looks pretty good to him now (despite the Mason-Dixon poll says. see posts below), but candidates in Virginia have fallen pretty quickly before. His downfall will be what I call it the Triplett effect. Kilgore cannot count on such a strong support in his own part of the state. It simply will not happen. The same federal district which he calls home has elected Rick Boucher for his 12th term (quite convincingly over NASCAR carpetbagger Kevin Triplett) will not give Kilgore the resounding margin that he thinks he'll get, the one he should win with 75% of the vote. I think it will be more like 54%. Forget the other numbers, call it a gut feeling.

That leaves Tidewater, Richmond, Roanoke, and NOVA.

Tidewater? You make the call. Depends on the military vote, which will likely be strong Kilgore, but I'm not sure they will turn out for him yet. NOVA? Will end up as strong Kaine despite the illegal immigrant debate going on at the moment. Roanoke? Strong Kilgore, of course.

Richmond is an obvious Kaine, which would put him over the top unless the following happens:

Doug Wilder endorses Russ Potts.

Would this be too much of a stretch to imagine? I think it's more likely to happen than not. While Wilder may not be horribly offended by Kaine, he's still too conservative to stomach Kaine. Kilgore is too much of a plastic candidate for his tastes. There's just so much wrong there for Doug W.

And of course, Wilder loves making a splash, being the center of attention, and being a fly in the ointment. That's what he's been for most of his life. That's exactly what he's doing now as mayor of Richmond. Can you really see him NOT doing this?

So, if this happens, who would get elected? Well, obviously moderate Republicans and Democrats would be drawn to Potts, but not in sufficent numbers for him to win. There'd still be too much emphasis on that "I" next to his name on the ballot.

I think it would result in a Kilgore win. Kaine's support would erode too much in his home base for him to overcome.

And that's exact reason why Doug won't do it. As much as he's not endeared with Kaine, he's a better substitute than Kilgore, and voters will never get past the letter by Potts' name.

While Doug does wield significant power in this election, he's not going to come out and say it.

But if I'm wrong? My only out is that Doug does what Doug wants. And that's been true for as long as he could talk.

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Did too! Did not! Did too! Did not!

Well, the grandstanding continues AND (in a Not Guy Incognito exclusive) there's another debate offer on the table for sure. More on that in a moment...

First of all, Kaine and Kilgore continue their jabs over who really wants to debate and who doesn't. Another email today, this one from Mo Ellithee (Kainefolk). He included the following emails traded between him and Ken Hutcheson, (Kilfolk):

"Mo—thanks for your e-mail. We have accepted the invite to debate on October 9 issued by the Center for Politics and NBC 12 and are looking forward to it. Please consider this our official notice that the 2 other proposed dates are not on the table for discussion from our perspective.
To say October 9 is unacceptable to your campaign flies in the face of the breathless calls for debates from your candidate and would appear to be nothing more than political grandstanding."

Ellithee responded:
"The Kilgore campaign, which accepted this invitation yesterday with great fanfare, demanded October 9th, and has threatened to boycott the debate if it is held on either of the other two days... Are we sensing a pattern here? It seems that every time the Kilgore campaign is faced with debate scenarios they don’t like, they threaten to take their ball and go home."

This is basically the pinnace of their lives at the moment, squabbling over minute details that none of us really care about. Hutcheson is accusing Ellithee of doing EXACTLY what he's doing right at that moment!!! What a set of cajones that guy has! He's got to carry them around in a wheelbarrow!

Now to the good part. There are talks for another debate in late September in Richmond. I hear radio and TV will likely be involved. I think it will be a town hall style appearance where the audience asks preselected questions. Perhaps it's time to plant a few bloggers in the audience!

Potts appears to be potentially left out of this one too...

As always, there are a host of issues to be debated, chewed over, and passed like a stone (just see the above emails for proof). I'll keep you updated on the details...

Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Somewhere, angels are singing...

Well, well, well...

So Kilgore and Kaine agree to a debate, setting a strict standard for Russ Potts to be excluded unless he makes significant strides. He needs 15% in two reputable polls to be included. However, this shows a major problem with Rasmussen's methods, where surveyees were asked if they were voting for Kaine, Kilgore or "Another Candidate". Obviously the deck is stacked solidly against "Another Candidate".

For those wondering where the 15% threshold comes from, the Capital Correspondants set it way back in 2001, to coincide with the Presidential debate semi-standard. They said then that 15% is the mark where a candidate actually has a legitimate chance of winning. Obviously, Kaine and Potts supporters want the old man included.

The funny thing is, is that back in 2001 nobody was willing to lie on the tracks for Libertarian Candidate Bill Redpath so he could be included in that debate. (he WAS on the ballot as well). You can't have it both ways, folks. Either give in to ALL candidates that make the ballot, or stick with the standard. I'd prefer Potts, and any other candidate that amasses 10,000 signatures and qualifies for the ballot to be included. Even if is a candidate of the Nazi party and is polling at -1%. The polls already play too much of a part in deciding elections, they shouldn't be responsible for excluding a candidate who's name is on the ballot.

So, to announce said debate, Kilgore's camp was quick to send out an e-mail trumpeting the fact that the two sides had agreed to share a stage. Kaine's folks responded with the fact that their candidate had agreed to this debate months ago. The minor battles continue.

By the way, there's word that another debate is in the works, this one for late September, also in Richmond. Shhh! It's a secret. If they can just get Jerry to agree to that one as well.

Sunday, August 07, 2005

Stuck between a Mack and a hard place...

So, recently I took a brief day trip to D.C. from Richmond, and one thing struck me. Traffic can not get any worse in D.C. before people start shooting each other with much regularity.

Can anyone please explain to me what the Mixing Bowl hopes to accomplish? Isn't it possible that growth patterns have already passed it by, making it relatively obsolete? Is there really social engineering going on, where the econ development folks are talking with the traffic guys?

ON A WEEKEND, I was stuck in traffic so bad that a normally one and a half hour trip took us three and a half hours+ to complete. No reason for the backups. 10 mph for an hour straight and then 85 for another. I can only imagine what this would be during rush hour (although I have no desire to find out).

It seems to me like Washington needs an enormous expansion of the Metro lines, and some semblance of a policy on growth. The city keeps expanding dramatically with enormous housing developments, yet no clear policy on how it will impact the community.

Yes, there are a few examples of "smart growth" in D.C., but overwhelmingly we saw the exact opposite.

This is one of the many issues in Virginia that must be addressed immediately. I-81 is another crushing problem, and there has to be another option other than what Fluor and Star are proposing. How about a few intermodal terminals? The one in Roanoke, another in Wytheville, and more reliance on rail to get some of the trucks off a narrow, hilly, and twisty interstate.

I'm not even going to get into the problems Tidewater has.

These problems grow gradually, and it's too late before we realize. Perhaps this surplus next year (unless the tax package is repealed) can at least make a dent on what is already a multi-billion dollar problem, and will only get worse unless we start paying attention. It's clear now is the time we've got to do something.

Wednesday, August 03, 2005

Three-way in Virginia!

In case you didn't know it, the three candidates for governor have agreed to a 3-way debate! And you can see the video!!! Unfortunately, they aren't sharing a stage, and they aren't really talking to each other.

The Veterans of Foreign Wars tried to stage a three-way debate, but as usual, you-know-who couldn't agree on the terms. So, they gave each guy a webcam and asked them a couple of questions. You can find it here:

http://www.manilasites.com/vfwva/
They (especially Kilgore) look and act like they're running for student council, not Governor. Kilgore and Potts could learn something about lighting, and Kaine could use a better background and warmer audio. Each candidate got as many takes as they wanted, and all of them look like they should have given it another ol' college try. I do find it funny that Kilgore was the last to turn his "homework" in to the VFW.

Apparently, Kilgore still trusts the people of Virginia to make his decisions for him, and he still does not acknowledge Potts. "My opponent"??? If you notice, he really doesn't say anything of substance... Would it kill him to say something that's not written down in his talking points? Who is really pulling the levers behind the curtain?

Kaine? Well, he's still obviously trying to ride on Warner's coattails (4 mentions), and he's using his well-rehersed lines as well... Good answer about transportation... Not a bad performance, but needed a lot more to change veteran's minds...

Potts? Best answer of the "debate". What will you do for the veterans of Virginia? "Well, Senator Russ Potts is the only veteran running for Governor." Yup, that's right, he's talking about himself in the third person (three times). The scary thing is, he's probably the best public speaker of the three. Man, if Kilgore wasn't the golden child of the GOP, this guy would have walked into the Governor's mansion if he were the GOP nominee.

It may not be what most of us want, but at least it's a start. So far, most of the voting population has had practically no accessibility to the candidates. Well, Virginia here's your introduction; go do that voodoo that you do so well.

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