Not Guy Incognito

So, I've been formulating my thoughts on this for a while.

Whether you like it or not, Russ Potts WILL be a factor in this election. He's making strides, slowly. He's not what Virginia needs in a Governor, but some of his no-nonsense ideas are.

Kilgore's lead looks pretty good to him now (despite the Mason-Dixon poll says. see posts below), but candidates in Virginia have fallen pretty quickly before. His downfall will be what I call it the Triplett effect. Kilgore cannot count on such a strong support in his own part of the state. It simply will not happen. The same federal district which he calls home has elected Rick Boucher for his 12th term (quite convincingly over NASCAR carpetbagger Kevin Triplett) will not give Kilgore the resounding margin that he thinks he'll get, the one he should win with 75% of the vote. I think it will be more like 54%. Forget the other numbers, call it a gut feeling.

That leaves Tidewater, Richmond, Roanoke, and NOVA.

Tidewater? You make the call. Depends on the military vote, which will likely be strong Kilgore, but I'm not sure they will turn out for him yet. NOVA? Will end up as strong Kaine despite the illegal immigrant debate going on at the moment. Roanoke? Strong Kilgore, of course.

Richmond is an obvious Kaine, which would put him over the top unless the following happens:

Doug Wilder endorses Russ Potts.

Would this be too much of a stretch to imagine? I think it's more likely to happen than not. While Wilder may not be horribly offended by Kaine, he's still too conservative to stomach Kaine. Kilgore is too much of a plastic candidate for his tastes. There's just so much wrong there for Doug W.

And of course, Wilder loves making a splash, being the center of attention, and being a fly in the ointment. That's what he's been for most of his life. That's exactly what he's doing now as mayor of Richmond. Can you really see him NOT doing this?

So, if this happens, who would get elected? Well, obviously moderate Republicans and Democrats would be drawn to Potts, but not in sufficent numbers for him to win. There'd still be too much emphasis on that "I" next to his name on the ballot.

I think it would result in a Kilgore win. Kaine's support would erode too much in his home base for him to overcome.

And that's exact reason why Doug won't do it. As much as he's not endeared with Kaine, he's a better substitute than Kilgore, and voters will never get past the letter by Potts' name.

While Doug does wield significant power in this election, he's not going to come out and say it.

But if I'm wrong? My only out is that Doug does what Doug wants. And that's been true for as long as he could talk.