Sunday, November 13, 2005
Why Warner (and not Hillary) will be the nominee in '08.
If you missed Face The Nation this morning, you missed an interesting interview. Warner was the Dem. counterpart to John McCain, but came off looking pretty good. It did look very similar to the hour-long interview on C-Span last week, though.
I see he's gotten his talking points down (listen for "sensible center" "triple bank shot" "comfortable in my own skin" and "fiscal responsibility" in the coming months), and looks like a man on the move.
Right now, the '08 race for president is all about national name recognition. If I mention Hillary, Rudy, or McCain, you know who I'm talking about. Mark does not have it yet, but he's slowly getting closer..
The Democrats want an idealist, but they want someone who will win first and foremost.
Sen. Clinton is the leader for the moment, but there's a lot of time to go, and I say she has no chance down the road.
Why? It's not the fact that she's a woman. It's the fact that she's THAT woman. The Republicans would LOVE to trash her, and have been preparing to do so since 1992. And the Democrats know this.
She'll ride a wave early on, but then it will come crashing down. Remember, the scream didn't do Dean in. His popularity was on the wane already when Democrats realized there was no way he could win. Look for one embarrasing or uncomfortable moment to do her in.
With Warner, they'd have a much harder time. Running as a fiscally-conservative centrist, he'd take away one argument there. Yes, there would be the standard "He'll raise your taxes" ads, but this could easily be blunted by the fact that Warner cut jobs and services before the cleverly titled 'tax reform' of last year. In fact, he could actually out-do the GOP on the issue: just look at the amazingly massive new spending in this year's Transportation Bill to see.
After the Virginia Governor's race, Republicans are talking about "firming up the base", when what they really need to be doing is appealing to the middle. That is where Kilgore lost. He focused on wedge issues that in the end, nobody really cared about. The base was there and voted, it was the rest of us that appealed to Kaine. In almost any election, whoever takes the middle walks away a winner, and we saw exactly that here.
That's why Warner will win. For Democrats, he's a candidate who can move into Washington.
But in the meantime, he must work on his name recognition (a planned trip to New Hampshire will help), and to generally get his name out there. Being mentioned as a possible candidate is a good start, but he can't announce his intentions too early or the mystique will be gone.
He also needs to build credibility on foreign issues. He's got a start, but there needs to be much more. He needs another trip abroad sometime next year, and to generally be seen with as many troops as possible, as soon as possible.
So what does he do right now? Stay the course, and not forget Virginia over the next two months. His legacy here right now is pretty good, and he shouldn't risk doing anything to muck it up.
I see he's gotten his talking points down (listen for "sensible center" "triple bank shot" "comfortable in my own skin" and "fiscal responsibility" in the coming months), and looks like a man on the move.
Right now, the '08 race for president is all about national name recognition. If I mention Hillary, Rudy, or McCain, you know who I'm talking about. Mark does not have it yet, but he's slowly getting closer..
The Democrats want an idealist, but they want someone who will win first and foremost.
Sen. Clinton is the leader for the moment, but there's a lot of time to go, and I say she has no chance down the road.
Why? It's not the fact that she's a woman. It's the fact that she's THAT woman. The Republicans would LOVE to trash her, and have been preparing to do so since 1992. And the Democrats know this.
She'll ride a wave early on, but then it will come crashing down. Remember, the scream didn't do Dean in. His popularity was on the wane already when Democrats realized there was no way he could win. Look for one embarrasing or uncomfortable moment to do her in.
With Warner, they'd have a much harder time. Running as a fiscally-conservative centrist, he'd take away one argument there. Yes, there would be the standard "He'll raise your taxes" ads, but this could easily be blunted by the fact that Warner cut jobs and services before the cleverly titled 'tax reform' of last year. In fact, he could actually out-do the GOP on the issue: just look at the amazingly massive new spending in this year's Transportation Bill to see.
After the Virginia Governor's race, Republicans are talking about "firming up the base", when what they really need to be doing is appealing to the middle. That is where Kilgore lost. He focused on wedge issues that in the end, nobody really cared about. The base was there and voted, it was the rest of us that appealed to Kaine. In almost any election, whoever takes the middle walks away a winner, and we saw exactly that here.
That's why Warner will win. For Democrats, he's a candidate who can move into Washington.
But in the meantime, he must work on his name recognition (a planned trip to New Hampshire will help), and to generally get his name out there. Being mentioned as a possible candidate is a good start, but he can't announce his intentions too early or the mystique will be gone.
He also needs to build credibility on foreign issues. He's got a start, but there needs to be much more. He needs another trip abroad sometime next year, and to generally be seen with as many troops as possible, as soon as possible.
So what does he do right now? Stay the course, and not forget Virginia over the next two months. His legacy here right now is pretty good, and he shouldn't risk doing anything to muck it up.
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
Very interesting, Mr. Bond...
Tim Bill and Bob. Sounds like the cast of a perverted childrens show.
So what does this election really mean? Is it an indictment of Bush? Well, I'd attribute a couple tenths of a percent to that, but nothing more. I think this is really more an indictment on the slate of candidates the Republicans put forward, and proof that Mark Warner has a bright future in politics.
Deeds (as I've said, a fine and decent man) really needed a better base to work from. If he'd done slightly better in ANY part of Virginia, he would have won. Bristol, Winchester, or even Buena Vista would have done it. I'm actually amazed that he did as well as he did. To come from nowhere, be outspent, and still have amazingly low name recognition ratings, he put up one hell of a fight. Fewer than 2000 votes out of nearly 2,000,000 cast. That's a crushing way to lose. There's still a sliver of hope for Creigh, through the possibility of absentee ballots that still might be out there and the obvious recount that's coming.
I really think that Kaine pulled the rest of the party up. But most of his support comes from Warner. Take away his strong support from the public and these races would have easily been a GOP sweep, from the Gov's race to the Delegates. This has to be seen as a plus for his presidential aspirations. He's well funded, wildly popular in his home state, can energize his base, and appeals to the middle. His stock is seriously on the rise.
Take a look at just one obscure county from the last three elections. Henry County, tucked all the way down there in Southside, went 56% for Gilmore in '97. Warner won it with 60+ in '01, and Kaine took it with 51%. Kaine dominated in his strongholds, and took some surprising moral victories where you'd think Kilgore would have walked away with the vote.(read: SWVA and Shenandoah Valley)
Virginia's voters think we're better off than we were four years ago, and in the eyes of Virginia's voters, Tim has some big shoes to fill. Let's hope for Virginia's sake they're still thinking that way four years from now, because I really don't want to go back to where we were when Governor Jim left town.
So what does this election really mean? Is it an indictment of Bush? Well, I'd attribute a couple tenths of a percent to that, but nothing more. I think this is really more an indictment on the slate of candidates the Republicans put forward, and proof that Mark Warner has a bright future in politics.
Deeds (as I've said, a fine and decent man) really needed a better base to work from. If he'd done slightly better in ANY part of Virginia, he would have won. Bristol, Winchester, or even Buena Vista would have done it. I'm actually amazed that he did as well as he did. To come from nowhere, be outspent, and still have amazingly low name recognition ratings, he put up one hell of a fight. Fewer than 2000 votes out of nearly 2,000,000 cast. That's a crushing way to lose. There's still a sliver of hope for Creigh, through the possibility of absentee ballots that still might be out there and the obvious recount that's coming.
I really think that Kaine pulled the rest of the party up. But most of his support comes from Warner. Take away his strong support from the public and these races would have easily been a GOP sweep, from the Gov's race to the Delegates. This has to be seen as a plus for his presidential aspirations. He's well funded, wildly popular in his home state, can energize his base, and appeals to the middle. His stock is seriously on the rise.
Take a look at just one obscure county from the last three elections. Henry County, tucked all the way down there in Southside, went 56% for Gilmore in '97. Warner won it with 60+ in '01, and Kaine took it with 51%. Kaine dominated in his strongholds, and took some surprising moral victories where you'd think Kilgore would have walked away with the vote.(read: SWVA and Shenandoah Valley)
Virginia's voters think we're better off than we were four years ago, and in the eyes of Virginia's voters, Tim has some big shoes to fill. Let's hope for Virginia's sake they're still thinking that way four years from now, because I really don't want to go back to where we were when Governor Jim left town.
Monday, November 07, 2005
Almost forgot!
My endorsements lie as thus...
Gov. = Kaine
AG = Creigh
Lt. Gov = None of the above
Gov. = Kaine
AG = Creigh
Lt. Gov = None of the above
'Twas the night before the election...
Well, the latest poll came out. SurveyUSA (tradtionally a right-leaning poll) showed Kaine with a 9 point lead. They then amended their results to show a 5 point lead because of some inconsistancies. That's still outside the 3.5% margin of error.
I still like Kaine to win in a close race, followed up by a Republican sweep of the lower races. GOP gains one in the House.
Tuesday is the day we've all been waiting for all these months. No matter what happens, let's hope for a clean election without controversies.
It's time... Let the best man win.
I still like Kaine to win in a close race, followed up by a Republican sweep of the lower races. GOP gains one in the House.
Tuesday is the day we've all been waiting for all these months. No matter what happens, let's hope for a clean election without controversies.
It's time... Let the best man win.
Saturday, November 05, 2005
Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!
Well, it's the weekend before the election, and I've gone into a shell, just like the campaigns.
It's all about GOTV, Get Out The Vote.
President Bush is coming to Richmond the night before the election, but I really don't think this will have any effect on the race. His approval numbers in Virginia are holding steady at about 51%. But at this rally, all of the questions by the national press (if there is actual press availability) are going to be about his very poor trip to South America. I still wouldn't be surprised if the event got cancelled at the last moment.
For the most part, the voters' minds are decided, and it all depends on the turnout. However for the Repubs, the weather is supposed to be nice, and that will not depress the Dems vote (the logic being that bad weather keeps inner city voters away from the polls).
It's prediction time, and here I go on the record.
Kaine 48.4%
Kilgore 48.1%
Potts 3.5%
Could this be wrong? Aboslutely. Republicans in Virginia almost always get more of the vote than the polls show. However, with the number of undecideds left (about 7%), and the fact that undecideds are going about 2-for-1 for Kaine, I think he'll squeak through.
Virginia Tech lost, so the SW voters will be depressed, and that leaves me to believe they will have a lower turnout than other parts of the state (farfetched idea, but hey, why not?)
After that, it's a split ticket. Byrne has shown amazing growth in the past two months, but I still don't think she beats Bolling. McDonnell wins in a wash (although I know for a fact that Creigh Deeds is a good and decent man...)
No major moves in the House of Delegates, maybe +1 for the Republicans.
But hey, we still have to vote. No matter who you support, just go vote. It's simple, and gives you a warm fuzzy feeling of social responsibility. If you don't, I don't want to hear you whining and complaining once the election's over.
It's all about GOTV, Get Out The Vote.
President Bush is coming to Richmond the night before the election, but I really don't think this will have any effect on the race. His approval numbers in Virginia are holding steady at about 51%. But at this rally, all of the questions by the national press (if there is actual press availability) are going to be about his very poor trip to South America. I still wouldn't be surprised if the event got cancelled at the last moment.
For the most part, the voters' minds are decided, and it all depends on the turnout. However for the Repubs, the weather is supposed to be nice, and that will not depress the Dems vote (the logic being that bad weather keeps inner city voters away from the polls).
It's prediction time, and here I go on the record.
Kaine 48.4%
Kilgore 48.1%
Potts 3.5%
Could this be wrong? Aboslutely. Republicans in Virginia almost always get more of the vote than the polls show. However, with the number of undecideds left (about 7%), and the fact that undecideds are going about 2-for-1 for Kaine, I think he'll squeak through.
Virginia Tech lost, so the SW voters will be depressed, and that leaves me to believe they will have a lower turnout than other parts of the state (farfetched idea, but hey, why not?)
After that, it's a split ticket. Byrne has shown amazing growth in the past two months, but I still don't think she beats Bolling. McDonnell wins in a wash (although I know for a fact that Creigh Deeds is a good and decent man...)
No major moves in the House of Delegates, maybe +1 for the Republicans.
But hey, we still have to vote. No matter who you support, just go vote. It's simple, and gives you a warm fuzzy feeling of social responsibility. If you don't, I don't want to hear you whining and complaining once the election's over.
Tuesday, November 01, 2005
Potts no quitter... Where's Dougie?
So, Senator Russ held a press conference today to denounce the attacks by Jerry Kilgore, and to announce that he's staying in the race. Seriously.
He also claimed that he has more support than the polls show. I think he'll garner only about 2-3 percent in the election, as people will be willing to go out on a limb for a telephone poll, but either won't show up on election, or can't pull the trigger on pulling the lever for the independent.
It's clear that Russ is disenchanted with the current state of the Republican party. I think he knows that if he dropped out, it would boost Kilgore. Of his measley 4-5% of voters, probably 70% in my estimation would go to Jerry, but that's enough to tip the election. That's why he's staying in.
To me, a bigger story in this election so far has to be Doug Wilder. We're still awaiting his endorsement for Governor, with just about a week to go.
Today, he sent a letter to Creigh Deeds saying he would not support his candidacy because of Creigh's support loosening some gun restrictions. Doug says this is the first time since he started in politics he has not supported a Democratic candidate in a statewide office (what about Chuck Robb's runs years ago? public support then?) This is a blow to Creigh, who needed a boost in Richmond to try to combat McDonnell's strong showing in DC, Richmond, and Hampton Roads. I think we can officially call this race, because without a Doug endorsement, Creigh just won't have enough punch to make up the difference. I'll call it, but that doesn't mean I'm happy about it.
When it comes to Governor, Wilder has to be close to endorsing Kaine, but this close to the election it can't have that much of an effect. He dangled his endorsement in an attempt to strongarm Warner into putting money into a fund helping the poor pay their heating costs this winter, but the Gov did not bite. I anticipate a nod to Kaine later this week, possibly on Friday (because that's when news viewership is lowest, as a sign that he's doing it, but he's not exactly happy about it). Will it mean anything? Not nearly as much as it would have about two weeks ago.
I'm glad the death penalty ads have quieted down. I didn't like them at all to begin with, and there are much more important matters. Whether a dozen or so murderers get the gas doesn't quite compare with the major issues like transportation, the budget surplus, and Virginia's fiscal outlook over the next biennium.
So sit back, grab some 'corn, and enjoy the rest of the ride. It's going to be bumpy, but the end is in sight.
He also claimed that he has more support than the polls show. I think he'll garner only about 2-3 percent in the election, as people will be willing to go out on a limb for a telephone poll, but either won't show up on election, or can't pull the trigger on pulling the lever for the independent.
It's clear that Russ is disenchanted with the current state of the Republican party. I think he knows that if he dropped out, it would boost Kilgore. Of his measley 4-5% of voters, probably 70% in my estimation would go to Jerry, but that's enough to tip the election. That's why he's staying in.
To me, a bigger story in this election so far has to be Doug Wilder. We're still awaiting his endorsement for Governor, with just about a week to go.
Today, he sent a letter to Creigh Deeds saying he would not support his candidacy because of Creigh's support loosening some gun restrictions. Doug says this is the first time since he started in politics he has not supported a Democratic candidate in a statewide office (what about Chuck Robb's runs years ago? public support then?) This is a blow to Creigh, who needed a boost in Richmond to try to combat McDonnell's strong showing in DC, Richmond, and Hampton Roads. I think we can officially call this race, because without a Doug endorsement, Creigh just won't have enough punch to make up the difference. I'll call it, but that doesn't mean I'm happy about it.
When it comes to Governor, Wilder has to be close to endorsing Kaine, but this close to the election it can't have that much of an effect. He dangled his endorsement in an attempt to strongarm Warner into putting money into a fund helping the poor pay their heating costs this winter, but the Gov did not bite. I anticipate a nod to Kaine later this week, possibly on Friday (because that's when news viewership is lowest, as a sign that he's doing it, but he's not exactly happy about it). Will it mean anything? Not nearly as much as it would have about two weeks ago.
I'm glad the death penalty ads have quieted down. I didn't like them at all to begin with, and there are much more important matters. Whether a dozen or so murderers get the gas doesn't quite compare with the major issues like transportation, the budget surplus, and Virginia's fiscal outlook over the next biennium.
So sit back, grab some 'corn, and enjoy the rest of the ride. It's going to be bumpy, but the end is in sight.
