Monday, February 20, 2006
Allen 2008
I'm calling the 2006 Senate race for George Allen 56-42, or 52-47, depending on who he runs against.
Why the substantial win, you may ask? Because the Democrats are about to sqander all of the momentum they had from of Warner.
With the Miller vs. Webb tussle breaking as it is, I just can't see the Dems having any sort of shot. The Democratic primary is going to completely drain whoever wins . It'll kinda be like the Foreman-Lyle fight; both combatants will land haymakers and look great at times, but neither will really be the same afterwards.
As has been said earlier, Webb is not making any friends in the Democratic party, but is still going to drain money and resources. Any sort of fracture breaks a party wide open when you're trying to unseat an incumbent. And this is already a fairly wide fissure.
I believe James Webb will very soon have better name recognition. Just compare "businessman" or "former Secretary of the Navy", and the latter will stick with the voter.
However, he could be done in by the extremes. He's a candidate that will appeal to the middle, so lefty democrats won't bear to vote for a Reaganite. Far righties will see him as a threat to Allen, and in small numbers will go to the polls on primary day to try to keep him out of it.
The middle may not be paying attention and not show up. For the most part, statewide elections are won in the middle, but primaries are won on the wings. However, there are exceptions, and this one could be ripe for one.
This quite interesting article shows why this could be a very tight race IF Webb can get through the primary. Who knows, he could just lose the nomination and run as an independent. THAT would be something to see.
Why the substantial win, you may ask? Because the Democrats are about to sqander all of the momentum they had from of Warner.
With the Miller vs. Webb tussle breaking as it is, I just can't see the Dems having any sort of shot. The Democratic primary is going to completely drain whoever wins . It'll kinda be like the Foreman-Lyle fight; both combatants will land haymakers and look great at times, but neither will really be the same afterwards.
As has been said earlier, Webb is not making any friends in the Democratic party, but is still going to drain money and resources. Any sort of fracture breaks a party wide open when you're trying to unseat an incumbent. And this is already a fairly wide fissure.
I believe James Webb will very soon have better name recognition. Just compare "businessman" or "former Secretary of the Navy", and the latter will stick with the voter.
However, he could be done in by the extremes. He's a candidate that will appeal to the middle, so lefty democrats won't bear to vote for a Reaganite. Far righties will see him as a threat to Allen, and in small numbers will go to the polls on primary day to try to keep him out of it.
The middle may not be paying attention and not show up. For the most part, statewide elections are won in the middle, but primaries are won on the wings. However, there are exceptions, and this one could be ripe for one.
This quite interesting article shows why this could be a very tight race IF Webb can get through the primary. Who knows, he could just lose the nomination and run as an independent. THAT would be something to see.
