Thursday, June 15, 2006
Wrangling Webb
Well, he won.
It shouldn't be surprising to the readers of this blog.
Speaking of blogs, NLS has made a rather bold statement:
"Last night was the first major election that bloggers have ever won for a candidate." - NLS.
Granted, the candidate himself and Mudcat did mention them (of course, they mentioned a lot of other people too). I think the bloggers' roles have been quite limited.
When 150,000+ people voted in this primary, the percentage who actually read any of these diatribes has to be quite minute. It's more like an echo chamber. The same thing keeps getting heard (or read) by the same people, over and over. To make a statement like that shows incredible disrespect for the candidate, and especially the people who have been working to get out the vote. Show me the number of unique visitors, where they were from, and for whom they voted. Just show me a poll that proves that more than 1% of the statewide voters actually has seen one of the blogs, and then I might believe they played a role in the primary.
I just think more people realized that Webb did give the Democratic party a better chance to win the election. But there is a WHOLE lot of work to be done.
For example, money. The internet is a good tool to get the word out, but nothing beats good ol' fashioned cash. Allen has it, Webb doesn't. That's a major disadvantage where TV advertising is still the best way to reach the most voters. Webb's team has yet to prove that they can put together an effective commercial, or even a mailing that doesn't draw attention away from the central message.
That brings me to sunny point #2: Webb's message must be defined... and quick. He cannot simply run as an anti-Iraq War candidate. Yes, he should emphasize his military record, I've yet to hear a concise plan from him on what to do in the current quagmire. His positions on a variety of positions need flushing out. He has to do more than just be the alternative to George Allen. Allen may not be the most popular Senator, but it takes a lot to unseat one. Especially in a state as resistant to change as Virginia.
And onto #3. Webb has got to start looking like a candidate. He needs to get a whole lot more comfortable in front of crowds, and in front of cameras. His delivery is too stiff, he doesn't look like he has a handle on what he's saying (something Allen is exceptional at doing), and would get absolutely crushed in a debate with a professional politician. He needs to start talking to folks instead of reading and reciting. He is obviously an intelligent man. He just needs to be able to think on his feet better and get it out succinctly.
It will take a lot more voters to win the election, especially when the deck is stacked by the marriage amendment. Republicans will be somewhat motivated to go to the polls to insert this piece of trash into the Virginia Constitution. (I'll deal more with the merits of voting down this amendment later.)
Bloggers, if you really want to help, start knocking on some doors. You'll reach far more voters that way, and you won't look like a bunch of ninnies spouting off about how your candidate is godly, and the other guy is Satan (or at least the anti-Christ).
It shouldn't be surprising to the readers of this blog.
Speaking of blogs, NLS has made a rather bold statement:
"Last night was the first major election that bloggers have ever won for a candidate." - NLS.
Granted, the candidate himself and Mudcat did mention them (of course, they mentioned a lot of other people too). I think the bloggers' roles have been quite limited.
When 150,000+ people voted in this primary, the percentage who actually read any of these diatribes has to be quite minute. It's more like an echo chamber. The same thing keeps getting heard (or read) by the same people, over and over. To make a statement like that shows incredible disrespect for the candidate, and especially the people who have been working to get out the vote. Show me the number of unique visitors, where they were from, and for whom they voted. Just show me a poll that proves that more than 1% of the statewide voters actually has seen one of the blogs, and then I might believe they played a role in the primary.
I just think more people realized that Webb did give the Democratic party a better chance to win the election. But there is a WHOLE lot of work to be done.
For example, money. The internet is a good tool to get the word out, but nothing beats good ol' fashioned cash. Allen has it, Webb doesn't. That's a major disadvantage where TV advertising is still the best way to reach the most voters. Webb's team has yet to prove that they can put together an effective commercial, or even a mailing that doesn't draw attention away from the central message.
That brings me to sunny point #2: Webb's message must be defined... and quick. He cannot simply run as an anti-Iraq War candidate. Yes, he should emphasize his military record, I've yet to hear a concise plan from him on what to do in the current quagmire. His positions on a variety of positions need flushing out. He has to do more than just be the alternative to George Allen. Allen may not be the most popular Senator, but it takes a lot to unseat one. Especially in a state as resistant to change as Virginia.
And onto #3. Webb has got to start looking like a candidate. He needs to get a whole lot more comfortable in front of crowds, and in front of cameras. His delivery is too stiff, he doesn't look like he has a handle on what he's saying (something Allen is exceptional at doing), and would get absolutely crushed in a debate with a professional politician. He needs to start talking to folks instead of reading and reciting. He is obviously an intelligent man. He just needs to be able to think on his feet better and get it out succinctly.
It will take a lot more voters to win the election, especially when the deck is stacked by the marriage amendment. Republicans will be somewhat motivated to go to the polls to insert this piece of trash into the Virginia Constitution. (I'll deal more with the merits of voting down this amendment later.)
Bloggers, if you really want to help, start knocking on some doors. You'll reach far more voters that way, and you won't look like a bunch of ninnies spouting off about how your candidate is godly, and the other guy is Satan (or at least the anti-Christ).
Sunday, June 04, 2006
Desperation Song...
"Nowadays men lead lives of noisy desperation"
James Thurber
Right on time...
If you haven't seen them, Harris Miller is blowing a ton of his own money buying ad time in several TV markets and in major newspapers. There's very little biographical information in them, and they're pretty much attack ads on Jim Webb's politcs, attitude towards women, and admiration for Ronald Reagan.
Meanwhile, Webb is just continuing his public schedule. He's glad-handing, drinking beer, listening to bluegrass, touring the state in combat boots, and raising scant amounts of money.
This combination tells me one major thing: the inside polls must have Miller down, and significantly so.
It's a pattern we've seen as recently as, oh last year. That's right, doesn't this seem almost like a path that Jerry Kilgore went down? Attack on divisive issues, not to bring yourself up but to depress the other candidate's support.
Both of the candidates' public awareness numbers are still pretty bad, so some brief bio ads would probably go a long way. That's the funny thing about attack ads when the public doesn't know either candidate is the negative feeling is usually transferred right back onto the attacker. They rarely work when voters are still forming their opinions of the candidates. Perhaps the people think that the attacker has something to hide.
Now, even though they've raised a pittance, the Webb folks should have been able to get something together to counteract these ads. Of course, there's no need to if the ads aren't working and if the percentage difference is still fairly sizeable. I get the feeling that's the case here.
Now that's not to say that Jim Webb is the perfect candidate. Clearly he has a LOT of flaws (personality, legislative experience, embarrassing past writings, and the fact that he was a Republican until February, just to name a few). However, he still has a pretty good resume... one that can give Allen a run. Like I said before: Webb loses by 2-3 points, Miller loses by 8-9.
After June 13th, the Democratic candidate does not get any rest at all. Right now, George Allen has raised 10 times the money that both of the other candidates have combined. That is a serious hole.
Perhaps not calling in all those debts during the primary will pay off in the long run for the Dem, but still Allen may have a 2-to-1 money advantage come the Fall. Allen has a six year head start in fundraising. That's like the hare having a 3,000 foot head start in the mile run against the tortoise.
Slow and steady does not win that race, or this one either.
James Thurber
Right on time...
If you haven't seen them, Harris Miller is blowing a ton of his own money buying ad time in several TV markets and in major newspapers. There's very little biographical information in them, and they're pretty much attack ads on Jim Webb's politcs, attitude towards women, and admiration for Ronald Reagan.
Meanwhile, Webb is just continuing his public schedule. He's glad-handing, drinking beer, listening to bluegrass, touring the state in combat boots, and raising scant amounts of money.
This combination tells me one major thing: the inside polls must have Miller down, and significantly so.
It's a pattern we've seen as recently as, oh last year. That's right, doesn't this seem almost like a path that Jerry Kilgore went down? Attack on divisive issues, not to bring yourself up but to depress the other candidate's support.
Both of the candidates' public awareness numbers are still pretty bad, so some brief bio ads would probably go a long way. That's the funny thing about attack ads when the public doesn't know either candidate is the negative feeling is usually transferred right back onto the attacker. They rarely work when voters are still forming their opinions of the candidates. Perhaps the people think that the attacker has something to hide.
Now, even though they've raised a pittance, the Webb folks should have been able to get something together to counteract these ads. Of course, there's no need to if the ads aren't working and if the percentage difference is still fairly sizeable. I get the feeling that's the case here.
Now that's not to say that Jim Webb is the perfect candidate. Clearly he has a LOT of flaws (personality, legislative experience, embarrassing past writings, and the fact that he was a Republican until February, just to name a few). However, he still has a pretty good resume... one that can give Allen a run. Like I said before: Webb loses by 2-3 points, Miller loses by 8-9.
After June 13th, the Democratic candidate does not get any rest at all. Right now, George Allen has raised 10 times the money that both of the other candidates have combined. That is a serious hole.
Perhaps not calling in all those debts during the primary will pay off in the long run for the Dem, but still Allen may have a 2-to-1 money advantage come the Fall. Allen has a six year head start in fundraising. That's like the hare having a 3,000 foot head start in the mile run against the tortoise.
Slow and steady does not win that race, or this one either.
