Sunday, June 04, 2006
Desperation Song...
"Nowadays men lead lives of noisy desperation"
James Thurber
Right on time...
If you haven't seen them, Harris Miller is blowing a ton of his own money buying ad time in several TV markets and in major newspapers. There's very little biographical information in them, and they're pretty much attack ads on Jim Webb's politcs, attitude towards women, and admiration for Ronald Reagan.
Meanwhile, Webb is just continuing his public schedule. He's glad-handing, drinking beer, listening to bluegrass, touring the state in combat boots, and raising scant amounts of money.
This combination tells me one major thing: the inside polls must have Miller down, and significantly so.
It's a pattern we've seen as recently as, oh last year. That's right, doesn't this seem almost like a path that Jerry Kilgore went down? Attack on divisive issues, not to bring yourself up but to depress the other candidate's support.
Both of the candidates' public awareness numbers are still pretty bad, so some brief bio ads would probably go a long way. That's the funny thing about attack ads when the public doesn't know either candidate is the negative feeling is usually transferred right back onto the attacker. They rarely work when voters are still forming their opinions of the candidates. Perhaps the people think that the attacker has something to hide.
Now, even though they've raised a pittance, the Webb folks should have been able to get something together to counteract these ads. Of course, there's no need to if the ads aren't working and if the percentage difference is still fairly sizeable. I get the feeling that's the case here.
Now that's not to say that Jim Webb is the perfect candidate. Clearly he has a LOT of flaws (personality, legislative experience, embarrassing past writings, and the fact that he was a Republican until February, just to name a few). However, he still has a pretty good resume... one that can give Allen a run. Like I said before: Webb loses by 2-3 points, Miller loses by 8-9.
After June 13th, the Democratic candidate does not get any rest at all. Right now, George Allen has raised 10 times the money that both of the other candidates have combined. That is a serious hole.
Perhaps not calling in all those debts during the primary will pay off in the long run for the Dem, but still Allen may have a 2-to-1 money advantage come the Fall. Allen has a six year head start in fundraising. That's like the hare having a 3,000 foot head start in the mile run against the tortoise.
Slow and steady does not win that race, or this one either.
James Thurber
Right on time...
If you haven't seen them, Harris Miller is blowing a ton of his own money buying ad time in several TV markets and in major newspapers. There's very little biographical information in them, and they're pretty much attack ads on Jim Webb's politcs, attitude towards women, and admiration for Ronald Reagan.
Meanwhile, Webb is just continuing his public schedule. He's glad-handing, drinking beer, listening to bluegrass, touring the state in combat boots, and raising scant amounts of money.
This combination tells me one major thing: the inside polls must have Miller down, and significantly so.
It's a pattern we've seen as recently as, oh last year. That's right, doesn't this seem almost like a path that Jerry Kilgore went down? Attack on divisive issues, not to bring yourself up but to depress the other candidate's support.
Both of the candidates' public awareness numbers are still pretty bad, so some brief bio ads would probably go a long way. That's the funny thing about attack ads when the public doesn't know either candidate is the negative feeling is usually transferred right back onto the attacker. They rarely work when voters are still forming their opinions of the candidates. Perhaps the people think that the attacker has something to hide.
Now, even though they've raised a pittance, the Webb folks should have been able to get something together to counteract these ads. Of course, there's no need to if the ads aren't working and if the percentage difference is still fairly sizeable. I get the feeling that's the case here.
Now that's not to say that Jim Webb is the perfect candidate. Clearly he has a LOT of flaws (personality, legislative experience, embarrassing past writings, and the fact that he was a Republican until February, just to name a few). However, he still has a pretty good resume... one that can give Allen a run. Like I said before: Webb loses by 2-3 points, Miller loses by 8-9.
After June 13th, the Democratic candidate does not get any rest at all. Right now, George Allen has raised 10 times the money that both of the other candidates have combined. That is a serious hole.
Perhaps not calling in all those debts during the primary will pay off in the long run for the Dem, but still Allen may have a 2-to-1 money advantage come the Fall. Allen has a six year head start in fundraising. That's like the hare having a 3,000 foot head start in the mile run against the tortoise.
Slow and steady does not win that race, or this one either.
