Not Guy Incognito

After watching this debate over, and over, and over (hey, it's an obsession and my job!) I may have been a little bit harsh on Webb. However, this debate still showed that his strategy seems flawed.

I'm not really sure exactly who he's going after. He's obviously not diametrically opposed to Allen, in fact he scarily seems like he would still be an active Republican if it weren't for the Iraq war.

To be fair, that has turned a lot of centrist voters to the Democratic side, and solidified blue-leaning votes.

Much has been made about how Virginia is turning blue, primarily because of Tim Kaine's victory last year. However, what's lost in all of this is how bad a candidate Jerry Kilgore was. It was a situation similar to Mark Earley back in 2001.

I'm not sure Webb can pull the same margin out of Northern Virginia, and I haven't seen anything that shows he will pull the same results from Tidewater and Richmond that Kaine did. The Golden Crecent won the day last year, but the rest of the Turkey on Its Back just may well rule the day on November 8th.

And I would love to be a fly on the wall when Allen and Webb sit down and have a beer together once this is all over.

PS - If you get a chance to see the debate, watch it for yourself. It's worth making up your own mind instead of listening to a bunch of partisans in the blogosphere.

See my post below.

Despite what you'll see at the pro-Webb sites, I thought it was pretty much a complete disaster for him. From an entertainment standpoint (what the average person would think about it) it was pretty boring. There were a couple of good lines, but none so memorable that they stand out. Ok, they are going to have a beer together sometime. I found my mind wandering at times when Webb was talking. That's NOT a good sign, as I'm actually interested and tried to follow him.

Face it, he's just not that dynamic of a speaker, especially when matched up against a professional like Allen.

This is not meant to disparage the man, but he's overmatched in public speaking. And in a voter's mind, that can be a disaster. He lacks the punch, he left too many open opportunities go by. For an average voter, his logic may be well founded, but is difficult to follow.

I did confirm this much, WTVR in Richmond will air the debate in its entirety on its secondary channel (on Comcast digital) this Friday night. I overheard that WDBJ in Roanoke might be doing the same thing (although plans did not seem worked out to me).

Media coverage was an interesting mix. Besides the above, TV coverage included: WSET, WSLS, WVIR, and even NHK (Japanese television).

The panelists were kinda dull. Bob Holsworth did an alright job, but could have pressed the issue a lot more. I feel like he did not challenge the candidates to provide specifics. He only used his moderator's power once to follow up. In a debate that was not limited by TV time, he had the opportunity, but did not use it.

Much will be made about the Craney Island question (although I thought Allen was saying Traney Island). Webb is right, it's a throw-away question. It's a boring technical issue that Allen's aides are probably working on, and not the Senator. It was a gotcha moment, and Allen came of looking like jerk. Of couse Webb looked like a doofus, but a gracious one.

Amazingly, the most timely question was not really asked. What to do about Israel and Lebanon, and Somalia and Ethiopia.

In all, informative yes. Fireworks no. There are at least two more debates planned, and hopefully Webb will improve his public speaking by then.

Right now the score is Allen 30-love.

It's pretty clear that the Webb camp needs a little momentum going into August. That's when the campaign will get going for real, and when your average Joe will begin paying attention.

To get that "mo" going, he has to pull something special out at the Homestead.

That will show that he's a viable candidate, not only in the minds of donors, but the press as well. Right now he's too much of a sideshow, trying to have his reputation and resume carry the weight.

He must be clear in his position, he must state it with clarity, and not be as ambiguous as he has been for most of the race so far.

And most importantly, he must show that he can think on his feet against a seasoned politician.

I don't play the game of diminished expectations. Last year many republicans said how Kaine was a superior debater than Kilgore, so Jerry only had to hold his own to come away a winner. In the words of Gail Parker, I poo-poo that. R's will be happy to hear that I'll call Webb out on the plush Homestead carpet if he does not come out looking better.

Believe it or not, this debate WILL be televised "live on tape" next week. Perhaps in two markets, although details are still being worked out, so I hear. When I get more details, I'll let you know.

I'll be there in beautiful Hot Springs, and should have some comments Saturday night or Sunday, so check back!

So the Webb folks send out a press release stating how their man has agreed to a debate, but the Senator has not.

Good tactic, if it weren't terribly out of touch with the truth. The following is from the Virginia Bar Association's website:

The Virginia Bar Association will host the first campaign debate between Virginia’s Democratic and Republican United States Senate candidates on Saturday, July 22, from 10:30 a.m. to noon, during the VBA’s 116th Summer Meeting at The Homestead in Hot Springs, Virginia. Republican incumbent Senator George Allen has accepted the VBA’s invitation to participate in the debate. The Democrats vying for the party’s nomination, Harris Miller and James Webb, have each been invited, pending the outcome of the Democratic primary on June 13. Robert D. Holsworth, dean of the College of Humanities and Sciences at Virginia Commonwealth University, will serve as moderator. This event continues the decades-long tradition of the VBA hosting an early debate in statewide gubernatorial and U.S. Senate contests before the Association’s annual Summer Meeting. Details of the debate format will be finalized at a later date.

Notice that this was written before the primary, and Allen had already accepted. Perhaps Allen had not filled out the paperwork, but don't make that claim if it's not as easily disproved than this. Or, if it's outright lying, that's not a way to build credibility either.

It's time to poke fun at Gail Parker.

I'm sure she is a fine, upstanding, and intelligent woman, but the (I) in this race is in serious danger of looking like she's a few cars down from a full train.

For starters, listen to this. This has to be among the worst commercial/jingle that I've ever heard. All it needs is some train whistles blowin'.

Add to that, there's the press release she sent out. If I could find a copy of it I would link it. (Update! I found it! Check out her press release and the bar's response!!!) Basically she claims how she spoke with someone at the Bar Association, and thought she was going to be invited to the debate later this month.

Right on cue, the Bar sent a press release out that she was not going to be invited, and the person she thought invited her to the debate, was actually the receptionist. FUNNY!

Please, if we're going to get good third party candidates (something I am ALL in favor of), make them a little stronger. There are third party views that need to get out there, but with candidates like this, those views are in danger of getting shuffled out.

So the race for Senate gets its first major national exposure on network (i.e. more than just a mention on CNN). You can view it here.

Go on, watch it. It's worth the 15 minutes of your life. I'll be here waiting...

Still waiting...

You should be almost done...

And we're back.

An interesting piece, I think. It says a lot about the strategies that each campaign is going to employ this year.

Basically, the Allen folks are going to brand Webb as someone who can't make a decision, and are going to not see him as a viable threat to the Senate seat. In reality, he may be a significant threat, but public perception means a whole lot in politics.

For Webb? He's gotten a lot more polished in the last month, but he still needs some help coming across as "Senatorial". His answers must be a lot more crisp and concise. Pieces of a rambling interview can easily be taken out of context and manipulated in the course of the campaign.

Both are trying to be the guy you'd like to sit at a bar with and have a beer. Call it the Karl Rove strategy. Make your guy more likable, and more regular. It's worked time and time again, and there's no reason it can't work in Virginia this year.

It takes a whole lot to unseat an incumbent Senator, and despite what you'll read elsewhere by the folks who have dipped their cups in the Webb KoolAid, I just don't see it right now from the Democratic candidate. He may be a fine, upstanding guy, and I'd love to pick his brain over a game of darts, but right now he's no Senator Webb.

One other note: George Allen does not look good. He seems to have aged significantly lately. Hopefully his health is not a problem. I may not like his politics (and there's a whole lot not to like), but I don't wish him any bodily harm.